Today, one of the tightest US presidential election races in history reaches its climax with President Barack Obama in a neck-and-neck race with his Republican challenger Mitt Romney for the White House. The winner will not necessarily be the candidate who tops the national popular vote. The next president of the United States must secure at least 270 of the 538 electoral-college votes apportioned to each state.
Much has been made of the fact that the Caribbean did not figure much in the presidential campaign-not even rating a mention in the three widely broadcast debates. But that is not unusual. This region is no longer regarded as a vital ideological/security bridge between North and South America and constitutes just a small element of broader US strategic thinking.
However, while it may appear at first glance that there is not much in the presidential race for the region, that is certainly not the case. Issues like immigration, curbing drug-trafficking, dealing with criminal deportees, poverty alleviation, education and even issuance of visas are all important to the 35 million people who live in this part of the world. How and if these issues are addressed over the next four years depends on who occupies the White House.
It is a fact of life that the people of the Caribbean are deeply affected by what takes place in the United States. The recent passage of Hurricane Sandy is just one example, with millions directly affected as the superstorm tore a path of destruction across several islands in the northern Caribbean and the US?east coast. This was not just a matter of geographical proximity but the reality of longstanding economic and social ties forged by millions of Caribbean-US citizens, green card holders, nationals and residents.
One area in which the region would feel more comfortable with President Obama in the White House for a second term is immigration. Romney has attempted to soften his anti-immigration rhetoric in the course of his campaign but the two candidates have significantly different approaches to that crucial issue.
Obama is promising rapid reform of immigration policy while Romney wants undocumented migrants to voluntarily return to their countries of origin and then to apply to enter the US legally. A policy introduced by the Obama administration just a few months ago stops the deportation of undocumented immigrants who were taken to the US before they were 16 years old and are now 30 or younger. This has been well received throughout the Caribbean and Latin America since many from this region will benefit.
In terms of economic policies, with a President Romney there is unlikely to be any change in what currently applies toward the Caribbean-except maybe strictures on the financial services sector since Romney is a beneficiary of financial facilities in the Cayman Islands. The Obama administration, struggling to emerge from the global economic meltdown, has not been supportive of offshore banking and financial services and will fight against tax loopholes and any measure that may be to the advantage of international investors attempting to take money out of the US.
Policies toward Cuba and Venezuela are among the areas where there could be a radical shift in policy if Obama is defeated by Romney. The latter wants to return to tight sanctions against Cuba and will also adopt a more hard-line position on Venezuela's recently re-elected President Hugo Chavez, even as he pursues more "market-based economic relationships" in the region. Not surprisingly, many unscientific and unofficial polls carried out in T&T in recent weeks strongly indicate that President Obama is the preferred candidate in this country. In a few hours, the world will know whether the people of the US will give him a second term.
