National planning ought to begin with the identification of the key challenges of the day, and relate these to projected macro-economic trends, which will determine the level of resources available for addressing them. In my view, there are two key challenges at the global, regional and national level: social peace and environmental sustainability.
The demand for social peace is evident, given that "everywhere there is war" whether as explicit as in Gaza, or in terms of varying degrees of social implosion including in the Caribbean. The second key epochal challenge–environmental sustainability–also exists nationally, regionally and globally. The recent Trinidad and Tobago flooding is but one of myriad ways in which our environmental disregard is having a negative impact on our health and safety. All aspects of planning–whether physical, environmental, social or economic–ought to be focused on contributing to these two key challenges. President-elect Barack Obama, for example, clearly has some insight into the significance of the environmental challenge.
Unfortunately, the financial meltdown and Gaza/Palestine threaten to derail his attention. Unavoidably, therefore, we need to have some sense of where the global economic crisis is heading as a basis for addressing the two key planning imperatives of the epoch. It is my considered view that we are in for a period of economic volatility for some years, with an outside risk of economic depression. However, there is a silver lining, since the social peace and environmental sustainability challenges were not on the agenda of status quo. There is now the possibility–though not certainty–that the policy space will open up for those who understand that one cannot operate without regard for the consequences of one's actions for others.
Hence the title of my paper: "Planning in a period of transition (hopefully) from Ignorant to Enlightened Self-interest (and even perhaps altruism!)"
As noted in an earlier column: "The election of Margaret Thatcher in the UK in 1979, and Ronald Reagan in the USA, in 1980, marked a sea-change in the dominant economic theory and policy. "Free markets became the new orthodoxy and led to the triumph of market fundamentalism and either the repeal of regulatory laws or the downgrading of regulatory practice." In other words, ignorant self-interest has been dominant for the past quarter-century- plus. Two classic–though only illustrative examples–are Jerome Kervel and Bernard Madoff. Kervel was discovered, early last year, to have fraudulently utilised US$7 billion of deposits of Banque Paribas in France. Late last year, Madoff admitted to making off with US$50 billion of investors' money.
The two are mere symptoms of a malaise facilitated by the dominant policy-making in most countries. Now, the major players and perpetrators are on the defensive, though not yet out of the game. As also noted previously: "If history is any guide, it teaches us that the last time the leading economies were in an analogous situation it took 15 years–and the bitter experience of an economic depression and World War II (ie 1929-1944)–for the Bretton Woods Agreement to be negotiated." In other words, enlightened self-interest was not embraced until an extremely high price had been paid by all for the criminal irresponsibility of the ignorantly self- interested.
Economic policy implications
Three key policy issues demand prioritisation, given the anticipated economic volatility, but must be linked to social peace and environmental sustainability as the fundamental challenges of the epoch. First is sustaining employment: justifiable if it contributes to economic output and also on grounds of economic justice. Second, is maximising foreign exchange flows and minimising uses. The third key policy requirement–linking the first two–is to maintain and enhance productive investment.
Physical planning implications
Physical planning needs to be linked to these key economic policy imperatives. The suggestion is to link sustaining employment to the maintenance of existing physical infrastructure, defined to include protection of watersheds and their biodiversity. Denuded hillsides now urgently require replanting to save downstream physical assets: physical infrastructure (roads, utilities, homes and businesses).
Urban planning ought not to begin, for example, in the East-West Corridor itself, but from the ridge of the Northern Range. Maintenance of drainage systems justifies itself as a priority, together with appropriate allocation of publicly-supported commercial financing of maintenance and repair of existing housing stock. "Urban blight" also demands attention, beginning with basic facilities such as solid waste disposal and water supply availability. It is also proposed that the foreign exchange savings objective be linked, inter alia, to a shift to least cost (stress least cost) public transport systems, in anticipation of difficulties in replacing existing motor vehicle stock as it ages. Abstract from keynote address at January 8, conference on urban planning.