You are perhaps familiar with the cirque du soleil, well this must be cirque du parler. I certainly do not relish the 'I told you so's' swirling around in my aching head. I have spent a considerable amount of time pasting together a collage of soundbites, news conference snippets and articles; all artifacts of concerns that our economy might falter under the influence of the global financial crisis. Here, I attempt the difficult task of administering this 'bitter pill.'
I promise I will be gentle. Karen Nunez Tesheira, the vanguard of the government's dubious fiscal policy, if it can be termed as such.
How rapidly you ascended in your role to keep astride of the Prime Minister's vision, even to outstrip the ambitions of other ankle-biters in the cabinet eager to become the next...Daniel-san! (see karate kid if confused). Before and after the budget was read, Tex put on her wonder woman bracelets and with stunning reflexes, deflected question after question on the impact of the sub prime mortgage scandal in the US, the effects of inflation on the economy and the prudence of unabated government largesse and capital project-mania. At the post-budget alleged forum, where there were about three journalists and a hundred interest groups, Tex preened for the cameras. She was clearly still basking in the afterglow of her budget presentation for which she was showered with adulation.
Sycophantic sentiment drips from the callers-in, who have finally found a new target of their telephone retiree syndrome. Clearly she created history for women in politics, by reading ad nauseum from a document prepared by ministry technocrats; a jumble of recycled figures and hollow platitudes each of which was punctuated by the obligatory thumping of desks, rousing those peacefully napping in the cool leather of the chamber furniture. Fast forward to the deployment of the government's agents of subterfuge, just like bow fighters from the death star (I know, a very sad star wars reference but this is where the cirque du parler comes in)
Friday October 17, 2008
Mariano Browne: "Trinidad and Tobago remains stable; the economy remains strong, the financial sector is not exposed so there is no need for that panic to creep in..."
"No need to review the budget at this time..."
"There is nothing to suggest that we should cut back on mega projects at this time..."
In a city far away, a metropolis is brought to its knees, the financial heart of the United states of America is in defib, waiting for the federal government to shock it back to life with bail out packages.
All across the great city of New York, neatly coiffered men in their 20's are taking off their brooks brothers suits and throwing them into garbage bins. The oldest financial institution in the United States collapses, along with countless others.
Monday October 13:
Leader of Government business Colm Imbert: "There is no reasonable justification for a review the 2008-2009 budget because of falling oil prices.
Wednesday October 15:
Mariano Browne: "A mid-year review will decide if the budget needs to be adjusted." Opposition members sign a shaky ceasefire agreement in their civil war to redirect their energies to the budget. "Review the budget now!" growls Kamla, sensing blood in the water. Tex gets to her feet in parliament and declares "there will always be a demand for oil!" Those words seemed to carry on the wind because there began the freefall in the price of oil. In fact between September 2008 and January 2009, the price of oil fell from 120 US dollars per barrel to the 'priced to go!' figure of US 41 dollars.
November 30, 2008:
The finance minister serves the first slice of humble pie to the cabinet, the government cuts $5 billion from its planned expenditure. We can expect another round of cuts, which I imagine will eventually be revealed by the prime minister who is going to politely ask that you punch another hole in your already taut belt. October 24, 2008, energy minister Conrad Enill: "...estimated US $ 4 billion refinery scheduled for Point-a-Pierre will not be delayed or abandoned because of volatility in global oil markets. A new refinery still makes sense because there will be a dramatic increase in demand for fuel in China."
On the other side of the world, millions of Chinese workers are packing tightly into trains making their way back to rural homes to celebrate the Chinese lunar new year, for most of them, it is a one way ticket. Two major companies in China, one of which manufactures tdk products (cds and other recording platforms) announced sweeping job cuts in recognition of falling demand world wide and in preparation for the long winter of economic contraction.
November 26, 2008: Conrad Enill: "We shall experience a drop in revenue, but with a spread of products ranging from lng to methanol to fertilisers. While prices may fluctuate some, the country will not experience a boom to bust situation as it did decades ago." Last week Arcelor Mittal announced the evaporation of 120 jobs (they assured that it was a temporary measure), other down stream industries have reported a dramatic decline in demand for their products, "dipping prices for methanol, ammonia and urea ..." The oil workers union is already putting on war paint as Petrotrin is likely to soon trot out its programme of 'streamlining', which is a euphemism for bussin' throats.
Digicel, it seems got the call as well, now offering vsep packages across the entire group, hoping for a ten percent uptake. Tex came back to the media in the post cabinet, post � apocalypse with all the skills of the consummate hypnotist, and with considerable calm announced to the mesmerised press corps, without specifying, that there will be some social impact as the economic downturn is worse than was anticipated. Now we are into the realm of deficit financing and the 'in case of emergency break glass to heritage stabilisation fund.' Here we sit now in the din of our own racing thoughts and reflect upon a year of first, tapping on the shoulder of the government, then graduating to the "psssst!" eventually moving on to the "hey allyuh we need to talk", and eventually to the "pump the brakes, yuh drivin too hard!"
All the while we were made to feel that we, members of the media, economists, unionists, the opposition, businessmen and citizens, are all conspirators in a cabal formed against the government. Friday October 17, 2008: Colm Imbert, "some are acting like chicken little �running around saying the sky is falling." Hear now the names of the characters chicken little went to with his tale of woe, henny penny, cocky locky, goosey loosey, and foxy loxy. Coincidence? That story has many different endings ...I cannot help but wonder what ours will be.