Facing an energetic Valencia audience on Monday and warning of a general election ahead "as surely as night follows day," (sic) Prime Minister Patrick Manning did not mention that the first round of the battle may be as soon as next week Friday. The fight for control of Parliamentary seats–which any election involves–may begin on this occasion in the Parliament with the opening salvos arriving in the Opposition's motion of no confidence against Manning next Friday.
Shots in debate from both political sides will herald an early start to Manning's promised election and the testing of strength and support for the ruling PNM and Opposition UNC. Manning's recent hint about "action" to come appears–so far–to have been his election knell which he has launched after two and a quarter years of office and five months after commanding PNM to mobilise. Indeed, already campaigning, Manning's Valencia address was devoted to attacking the Opposition, warning of the alleged "misdeeds" of its predecessor NAR and reminding PNMites what the ruling party had done for them. Yesterday, PNM House leader Colm Imbert projected that next Friday's debate may run into three days rather than two due to the number of speakers.
UNC deputy leader Roodal Moonilal said the UNC hoped to set the groundwork for impending elections and has several new issues to raise in the Parliament relating to Manning's tenure. "...With which we hope to convince the nation, if not PNM MPs, to support the motion," Moonilal added. Defending their leader–and undoubtedly Government's record–all 26 PNM MPs will speak for their full allotted time of 75 minutes, Imbert confirmed. "We start at 10 am. If all 41 MPs speak as we expect, you're talking 40 or 50 hours of debate–without breaks. This could take us from Friday into Sunday," Imbert added. Imbert said PNM planning began earlier this week and will be finalised next week. He said PNM MP Keith Rowley was not at the first caucus. The ruling party also expects a "loud" PNM response outside in Woodford Square following Manning's call last Saturday for PNMites to rally.
PM gambles (again)
Whether due to loss of public confidence regarding issues including Udecott, or the "opportunity" offered by the fragmented Opposition in that environment, Manning's election alert has shot ahead of the UNC's no confidence debate. The UNC needs six more–PNM votes–to supplement those of its 15 MPs if the motion is to be passed with the required simple majority.
His announcement also preceded the publicising of the potentially explosive Uff report, being revealed in the Senate on Tuesday. By that time–and completion of issues pertaining to the Muslimeen affidavit–it may be clearer if Manning's election alert was a pre-emptive move. Or whether he is indeed only calling the "bluff" of new UNC leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar whom he said had demanded elections. The various events coupled with the rush for PNM nominations–by next Tuesday–and the Opposition's motion have promoted speculation Manning may name an election date during the upcoming debate.
Whether Manning is indeed aiming for May 17 or 24 as some claim (ahead of June World Cup football finals), Manning himself would be painfully cognisant of the PNM's loss the last time he called an election before term's end In 1995. Those polls came a year ahead of the end of term, while Manning was under siege on issues involving various individuals which affected his image. As currently. Manning's gamble then, resulted in the UNC entering government touting its unity platform for the first time. This time–issues apart–Manning's election will be held in a climate of economic austerity and "a little" (sic) rising unemployment which he confirmed on Monday.
Government has however, shunted its controversial property tax and T&T Revenue Authority plan to review and consultation respectively. While PNM's machinery secured a large showing at last Saturday's convention–utilising a confirmed 146 PTSC buses and 217 maxi taxis–the party still has to contend with discontented PNMites, a wider community wooed by "change", plus members dissatisfied with MPs. As Manning saw during Monday's walkabout where he received the most vocal complaints about MPs, out of his 12 walkabouts. An election may therefore take care of concerns about some ministers' performance (and recently hinted reshuffles.) Friday's debate will also profile MPs' performance deeply enough to figure in their selection as candidates. Particularly any who may choose to vote with the UNC against Manning.
Easy decision for Rowley?
With Manning's election "shot" offering political life or death for MPs on all sides, it may (or may not) make it easier for sacked minister Rowley to formulate a position for next Friday's no-confidence debate. If Rowley votes for the motion–and against his party leader–he will have to consider his political options outside of the PNM. Which would not place him in good standing to be considered as a PNM candidate for his constituency.
Rowley, however, may be hard-pressed to support Manning in debate, considering criticisms he has levelled at Manning's administration in Parliament four times since his dismissal–particularly on the Hart/Udecott issue–and the acrimonious exchanges between both in Parliament over the last two years. In view of such, Rowley's chances being returned as PNM's Diego Martin West candidate not only seem slim because Manning heads the PNM's screening team, but also because of Rowley's support in February for the UNC regarding a debate on Wasa.
Hours after Rowley signed a consent form for DM West, a top PNM official said tersely, "He's showed he doesn't toe the party line and he can't be trusted." If Rowley's chances for PNM candidacy may be dim and election is looming anyway, Rowley may have nothing to lose–and possibly, certain things to gain–in standing by his criticisms and voting for the UNC motion. (If he remains for the vote.) After Manning's election announcement and Rowley's declaration that he "would not go quietly," he showed up with broad smiles for UNC leader Persad-Bissessar at a Baptist function on Tuesday hosted by former UNC Senator Barbara Burke. Telegraphing a clear message to PNMites and the wider community.
Kamla pilots debate against PM
Photos of Rowley greeting Persad-Bissessar may help her political stocks more than his following the so-so showing of Persad-Bissessar's Saith Park rally last Saturday. Persad-Bissessar's piloting of her party's charge on the no-confidence motion next week allows her another chance to recoup and will pit her leadership and parliamentary prowess against Manning's. Elections, however, may challenge Persad-Bissessar's two-month-old administration. It will force the Opposition to take decisions which the new UNC order may have expected to have the luxury of at least several months to organise before local government elections (due by October latest) and general polls (constitutionally due by November 2012).
Loyalist MPs who supported Persad-Bissessar for the post of Opposition Leader would obviously expect that recent endeavour to assist in securing their candidacy. But not so, UNC's backbenchers and other MPs still at odds with the new dispensation. A general election would trim the comfortable two-and-a-half-year period those MPs had left under normal circumstances to a (much) shorter time if Manning makes good on his election promise. The fate of that group may then lie with UNC's screening team headed by Persad-Bissessar, who last month had consigned them to the "political cemetery."
Backbenchers Kelvin Ramnath, former leader Basdeo Panday and Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj finalise plans for Friday's debate next Thursday.
Heading off further division–especially for Friday's debate where numbers count–and telegraphing election readiness, Persad-Bissessar on Monday said she had 15 candidates (UNC's current total) and backbenchers were among potentials. Whether they toe the party line in upcoming debate may therefore figure in their selection chances. And the political future of the Parliament's Panday family on the front bench (MPs Subhas, Mikela) and back (Basdeo) may then be determined in coming weeks. Ramnath however said, "If I'm not chosen by the screening team to contest I won't fight as an Independent. I don't think anyone should, even if they feel slighted at not being chosen. People shouldn't have to choose between us party members. The enemy is the PNM.
UNC seat for Dooks...
Last Saturday's public showing of Persad-Bissessar's "strength" at her rally may also prompt the party to tweak systems. More than political results, the rally may have provided sharp answers to questions regarding party readiness, which UNC chairman Jack Warner raised recently at a Cumuto meeting. UNC officials said the constituencies of Siparia, Princes Town and Cumuto had the biggest number of attendees at the rally, which was organised by a different team (comprising MPs) to the committee which handled Persad-Bissessar's election campaign.
The 13,000 odd who voted for Persad-Bissessar in January's UNC election were obviously not all present, despite MP Tim Gopeesingh's initial assurance that the UNC had mobilised members and transport and expected "15,000 to 20,000" attendees (sic). Gopeesingh also said attending organisations would have brought members. On Wednesday, however, Gopeesingh said, "We were not responsible for transporting those groups' members. But we're satisfied with what we achieved. We did what we set out to do. There might be areas to strengthen administratively but from an organisational standpoint we came through successfully. "For the election we'll have massive crowds. The Government is ripe for the taking. Manning is down and we're going for his jugular." The election will also test sincerity for unity among UNC and COP forces beyond superficial statements.
Some UNC members yesterday expressed the hope their party will contest 21 of the 41 seats to be able to hold on to Government should a UNCOP arrangement buckle. COP member Gerald Yetming hopes for seat equity. Others suggest a bank of candidates on the basis of merit rather than party allegience. UNC officials are also considering whether St Augustine MP Vasant Bharath–out of T&T–should be shifted to Tunapuna to allow COP leader Winston Dookeran a "safe seat"; and how much of the east-west corridor COP should contest. Amid varied issues, the upcoming flurry of activities will set the stage for the looming fight.