Ken Ali

Prime Min­is­ter Patrick Man­ning would sure­ly re­mem­ber No­vem­ber 6, 1995. Man­ning's Peo­ple's Na­tion­al Move­ment (PNM) polled 48.8 per cent of the votes cast in an elec­tion he sur­pris­ing­ly called a year ahead of sched­ule. The then-fast-ris­ing Unit­ed Na­tion­al Con­gress (UNC) got 45.8 per cent of the elec­torate's sup­port, and along with Na­tion­al Al­liance for Re­con­struc­tion (4.8 per cent), strolled in­to White­hall. A stun­ning 17-17-2 re­sult of­fered a fresh de­pic­tion of the po­lit­i­cal land­scape, and a part re­ver­sal of the 1991 fin­ish, in which Man­ning had tak­en his par­ty to com­fort­able vic­to­ries in 21 con­stituen­cies. The UNC, then a break­away splin­ter of the flash-in-the-pan Na­tion­al Al­liance for Re­con­struc­tion, had won 13 seats in 1991, while ANR Robin­son was re­con­firmed as To­ba­go's prime po­lit­i­cal fig­ure.

Man­ning's de­ci­sion to sum­mon the elec­torate to the 1995 elec­tion came in the midst of a wel­ter of po­lit­i­cal con­tro­ver­sies, dis­missal of an en­voy by fax, the South­land mall row, and the Sev­ern Trent con­tract, among them. He lat­er con­ced­ed that he feared los­ing more seats if he had tak­en his ad­min­is­tra­tion to a full term. An­a­lysts lat­er sur­mised that Man­ning's cause was not helped by call­ing the elec­tion amid the emo­tion of the 150th an­niver­sary of the ar­rival of East In­di­an in­den­tured labour­ers. Man­ning's 1995 slip from na­tion­al of­fice led him to be de­monised by his own par­ty. Deputy lead­ers re­signed, and he lost the lus­tre of his 1991 tri­umph. In that year, he had tak­en the PNM from the 1986 po­lit­i­cal scrap­yard to a glo­ri­ous elec­toral vic­to­ry.

He was, af­ter all, an ac­ci­den­tal leader, one of on­ly three PNM can­di­dates to have sur­vived the 1986 NAR avalanche. Muriel Don­awa-Mc­David­son was nev­er a po­lit­i­cal heavy­weight and Mor­ris Mar­shall was a neo­phyte, so it was ob­vi­ous that Man­ning would have been made Leader of the Op­po­si­tion and win lead­er­ship of the par­ty, de­spite a sal­ly from Dr Ae­neas Wills. That was a far climb for Man­ning, who, in 1971 at age 24, the year of the no-vote cam­paign, was giv­en the San Fer­nan­do East seat as a po­lit­i­cal gift. His fam­i­ly had been avowed dis­ci­ples of PNM founder Dr Er­ic Williams and young Patrick was prof­fered in­to the po­lit­i­cal fray for an elec­tion that, in­ci­den­tal­ly, took place on May 24.

His ear­ly years as a rep­re­sen­ta­tive were spent in min­is­te­r­i­al ap­pren­tice­ship un­der the tute­lage of the heavy rollers of the day and un­til to­day he has mixed mem­o­ries. His place in na­tion­al, and es­pe­cial­ly PNM, his­to­ry was as­sured un­til his star­tling 1995 de­ci­sion to sum­mon the na­tion to the polls while his po­lit­i­cal stocks were low. Much has hap­pened for Man­ning since 1995, of course, in­clud­ing re­sound­ing elec­toral vic­to­ries, much more aplomb in na­tion­al of­fice and in­creased re­gion­al pres­ence. But a Prime Min­is­ter does not go to the elec­torate at mid-term with­out pow­er­ful rea­sons, and it is dif­fi­cult to find fac­tors in Man­ning's favour.

As they turn out to his evening ral­lies, even his bal­isi­er-wav­ing par­ti­sans seem non­plussed. Over the past decade, Man­ning has presided over the largest bud­gets in Trinidad and To­ba­go's his­to­ry, but is­sues of pover­ty, so­cial and eco­nom­ic wel­fare are sure to dom­i­nate the five-week elec­toral cam­paign. And while he is cor­rect on the poor track records of lo­cal coali­tion arrange­ments, the patch­work deal be­tween UNC and Con­gress of the Peo­ple (COP), and the trade unions, presents him with a chal­lenge sim­i­lar to that of 1995. He would find him­self in the cum­ber­some po­si­tion Bas­deo Pan­day faced in the UNC ex­ec­u­tive elec­tion: How do you cam­paign against a pop­u­lar fe­male con­tender with daz­zle and folksy ap­peal?

With Man­ning in his mid-60s, this may be his fi­nal turn at the crease and he doubtless­ly wants to pass the ba­ton to Con­rad Enill on an elec­toral high. But with a fast re­group­ing Op­po­si­tion on his heels, cor­rup­tion al­le­ga­tions in his face and na­tion­al woes all around him, Man­ning is fac­ing the po­lit­i­cal fight of his life. To be sure, he is a tough com­bat­ant with tremen­dous po­lit­i­cal acu­men, all of which he would have to sum­mon for a bruis­ing en­counter on May 24. As Man­ning tempts fate once more, No­vem­ber 6, 1995, will sure­ly haunt him.