The manifesto of the People's Partnership stressed the need for "sustainable growth and diversification of the economy." As the new government settles in, we should expect to have the details of our new strategy to "reduce our dependence on energy, create good jobs, and generate new sources of wealth creation" (Page 23). In a Facebook discussion, I saw reference to Robert Riley's speech made during a conference on March 24th of this year. It is available in its entirety on BP's Web-site, but two points jumped out at me. Firstly, "the not such good news for us in Trinidad and Tobago is that it is evident that the long-anticipated new wave of LNG supply is gathering momentum, boosting supply by an unprecedented six billion cubic feet daily–representing a whopping 26 per cent increase in 2010.
Much of this new LNG is coming into the market at a lower cost because of the fact that it is produced from associated gas, a by-product of primarily rich oil reservoirs." Secondly, Mr Riley goes on to say that "over the next ten years, therefore, we will have the challenge of steep declines in our existing producing reservoirs. "There might, therefore, theoretically be enough gas in place to sustain our current contracts and obligations to 2025 and a little beyond, but if anything does not go right, we could have quite a significant challenge on our hands over the next decade." So the sector which gives us 45 per cent of GDP, 80 per cent of exports and 58 per cent of government revenue has an outlook characterised by weak prices and challenges in maintaining production levels.
The previous administration was not unaware of this predicament, but its diversification strategy seems to have been heavily-dependent on encouraging downstream activity, an approach that was met with resistance by some of us. My personal position was–and is–that it would be helpful if more data is made available to the national community, particularly the economic feasibility studies together with the environmental studies that should have been conducted around the previous government's downstream plans. Scotiabank's Richard Young recently called on our new government to prepare and, presumably, publish a "national balance sheet." Again, such a move would enable us to better understand where we are, and help shift the debate among us ordinary citizens from one based on conjecture to one based on facts and figures.
The billion-dollar question is not just how to shift away from energy. That bit is easy. It is also how to shift away from energy in a way that does not reduce our national wealth. Depending on how the numbers look, we may need to continue pushing downstream in the medium term. But more on that when the numbers become available. Regardless, we have sectors such as tourism to help take us forward.
Last weekend, the Red Earth Eco Festival was on, and we made the drive to the Blanchisseuse area, a reminder to me of just how beautiful that part of our island is. It has been years since I actually stopped off to bathe at any of the bays in that area, and Marianne River was even more refreshing than I remember. There were quite a few people camping as well in the area, near the mouth of Marianne River.
I have been camping in other countries, and felt ashamed that I had never done it right here, so my wife and I spoke of returning sometime to camp out there. Tourism is, of course, big business, and it is very labour-intensive, which is good news for any government trying to keep the number of unemployed as low as possible. In the UK, summer 2010 looks likely to continue the 2009 trend of "staycations." A recent Financial Times article speaks about the "staycation" effect, which has seen many recession-conscious UK residents switch from holidays abroad to holidays at home. According to the Tourism Alliance, a lobbying group for the industry, tourism generates �114 billion, supports 2.7 million jobs, and 200,000 businesses.
Domestic tourism contributes �67 billion to the UK economy, much of it from towns and cities to rural and seaside locations. Perhaps, more of us holidaying in places like Blanchisseuse, Toco and Tobago will positively benefit the local communities and, by extension, the wider economy. It may not generate "hard" currency, but staycationing, rather than going abroad, will keep money circulating locally and give local service-providers incentives to enhance the quality of their product. My name is Derren Joseph, and I love my country. As always, I end by saying that despite our challenges, we are so blessed to live in this beautiful land. Let us continue to have the audacity of hope in our country, as we embark upon the next chapter in our nation's history.