At what age do you plan to retire? Many will not have a choice as they may be faced with a mandatory retirement age. That age usually ranges from age 60 to 65. There are others who may have greater choice, but may eventually be forced into retirement through ill-health and this is particularly applicable to self-employed persons and those involved in manual labour type of activities. So what about after you retire? With advances in medical care it is quite possible and, in fact, very probable for the a person currently aged 30 to 40 years old to live well into their 70s, 80s and even 90s.
That could easily mean ten, 15 even 20 years of post-retirement life. So how are you going to fund those retirement years and where are those funds going to come from? A study conducted by the American Benefit Research Institute suggests that the average American would have to work into their 70s and even 80s in order to afford retirement. This is because, first of all, they have not set aside sufficient funds for retirement and, secondly, the costs for some of the basics of life- food, transport and medical care-have been increasing rapidly and will continue to do so and in the process outpace the rate at which their retirement funds are growing.
The T&T experience
The experience in T&T is likely to be the same. For one, it is impractical to rely on the State to support your retirement lifestyle. And there are a number of issues that the average 30 to 45 year old is not taking into consideration. Consider that people are tending to get married later in life and have less children that the earlier generation. Also, property prices have skyrocketed over the past ten years as has the rate of inflation. The implication is that people are taking on larger debts-mortgages-later in life. Inflation is also reducing the level of disposable income. Further, fewer children mean that as parents, there are fewer potential candidates to lend financial or other types of support in your later years.
Limited options
I have stated this many times before, but it bears repeating. You really have three options open to you when it comes to planning for retirement. Either save more, invest more aggressively or be prepared to work longer. If you think about it, factors such as the job market, the level of inflation and your current level of debt will create challenges to your ability to save more. Your ability to work longer is also a function of your employability at that age and your health. The latter is something that can present unforeseen challenges as the cost of treating with medical challenges can not only prevent you from working, but also quickly erode the savings that you have accumulated.
If you accept the challenges associated with saving more and working well into what would have previously been your retirement years, then appreciate that the next option is to take a careful look at how you invest. Over the past few years, we have seen investing take on two broad approaches. First, there was the chase for high returns, which carried the perception of no risk that have resulted in almost total impairment of the invested funds. This has since morphed into an investor that "does not like the two per cent return, but does not want to take any additional risk."
Greed, fear
The overall conclusion is that most people simply do not know how to invest and approach the subject from extremes based on greed and fear. The end result is usually failure to achieve their investment goals. Then, rather than blame their inability to take a sound, structured approach to the issue and seek out a competent and experienced investment adviser, they will instead conclude that "this is not for me." By doing so, you are implicitly making the decision that you will be working well past age 60 or that you will be faced with a retirement lifestyle that is significantly below what you currently enjoy. Have you ever wondered why so many people aged 50 and above get caught in financial schemes? The answer is that at this age, many are faced with the panicked realisation that time has run out and so opt for the most attractive "get rich scheme" on offer.
Strategic approach
There is a fundamental point to appreciate and that is that at every moment, in every stage there is an investment strategy that can assist you in achieving your financial objectives. Consider the current scenario where most income funds are quoting rates in the region of two per cent. Rates have been low for the past couple years and may remain so for some time in the future. If you simply remain fearful and stay in near-cash investments for a period of, say, two to three years, how will that impact your ability achieve the sums you need to retire comfortably?
Many people have no clue as to how to answer that question. It could very well be that accepting a two per cent return over two to three years is a very high risk strategy in terms of achieving your retirement goals. It is important to put your investments and the returns on those investments into the context of what you are seeking to achieve and adjust your strategy in order to ensure that you stay on track. Let me use last week's article to highlight this point. For those who do not recall, last week I warned about the number of Chinese stocks that have been accused of fraudulent reporting to shareholders, resulting in the prices of these stocks going into free fall. Some have even been suspended or delisted.
Leverage for significant gain
Investing in the emerging markets, especially China, has been a big theme over the past few years as China is on course to become the world's largest economy in the next ten to 20 years. Clearly, there are opportunities there that investors can leverage for significant gain. So now that you are aware there are a number of Chinese stocks that are not what they seem, what do you do? The choices are stay the course regardless of the risk, something which most may not have the stomach for, or get out altogether and go back to the two per cent return. These two choices highlight the extremes of greed and fear and neither makes much sense if your objective is to secure your retirement.
A far better approach would be to seek out avenues that can provide you with the exposure to the growth markets you desire so that you are still positioned to achieve the requisite investment returns while, at the same time, managing the risks of investing in those markets. If you seek such an approach, considered to be the middle ground, you will, provided you are properly advised, find a strategy that can work. For example, you should appreciate that Chinese companies are not the only entities that are doing good business in China. Just recently, Apple indicated that they generated revenues of close to US$5 billion from China with iPhone sales growth at around 250 per cent. Yum Brands, which owns the KFC and Pizza Hut franchise, was the first foreign fast food entity to enter China and has been able to penetrate and grow its market share significantly over the past decade. Investing in Yahoo will give you access to some of the best Chinese Internet companies. I can go on.
Appreciate that the companies listed above are not recommendations. Rather they represent examples of Western firms that are taking advantage of growth opportunities in China and for that matter the emerging markets as a whole. The point is that rather than taking the risk of investing in a Chinese stock where the accounting, regulation, reporting and even management may not be up to the standard, that risk can be better managed by seeking out US multinationals that are growing rapidly in China and other emerging markets. At the end of the day, it is not a case of all or nothing, high risk or no risk, but rather seeking out ways that you can achieve your investment objectives in a manner that effectively manages the risk that you face. Recognise that over time, strategies change and what works today may not be as good or even relevant in a different investing environment. It all comes back to you taking the time and making the effort to recognise what is required and then stay the course the achieve your stated investment objective. The alternative is working long past age 60.
Ian Narine is a broker
registered with the SEC.
