Who’s next?
It is the question now often asked by citizens when a murder occurs. However, according to the director of the Actuarial Sciences programme at the University of the West Indies, St Augustine campus, Stokeley Smart, the likelihood of being killed may actually be much less.
“In terms of the likelihood of being murdered, I did some data analytics here and ran some numbers based on trends over the years. In 2023, there were 575 murders, Divide that by the population, 1.4 million and the probability of someone being murdered is 0.0004.”
Actuaries analyse the financial costs of risk and uncertainty. They use mathematics, statistics, and financial theory to assess the risk of potential events, and they help businesses and clients develop policies that minimise the cost of that risk. With over 330 killings in 200 days, there is a lingering fear that one of us could be the next victim of a range of violent crimes. Safety concerns have escalated over the spate of murders, which saw three men gunned down outside the Pizza Boys outlet in Cunupia on Sunday afternoon and Rio Claro businesswoman Carissa Ramrattan being shot dead shortly after dropping off her vehicle to be serviced at Toyota Trinidad, South Park, San Fernando, on Saturday.
During an interview with Guardian Media yesterday, Smart ascertained that further analysis of the data suggests that annually, deaths by murder constitute a small fraction of the country’s total cause of death.
“Four per cent of deaths in a given year. If you die, there is a four per cent chance that your cause of death will be murder.”
According to Smart, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancer rank considerably higher in the leading causes of death in the country when compared to murder. “There is a much greater probability that your cause of death will be from smoking or diabetes or cardiovascular disease. You have 1,300 people a year dying from smoking, 2,300 people a year dying from diabetes. The 500 makes headlines, but if every week we indicated how many people died from diabetes or cancer then it will be alarming.”
Despite this, however, the Government and law enforcement continue to work towards improving safety and security, as the rate of murders places the country seventh in the world according to the World Health rankings. But while the chances of being killed seem low, it is something Smart says should not be dismissed.
“I’m not saying that we should not do better as a society to reduce the number of people that are dying from violence and murders and whatnot, not at all. But when you look at the bigger picture, we should be more concerned or equally concerned with the number of people dying from these healthcare issues.”
Research has suggested that there are several other factors contributing to murder, including geographic location, inequality and access to firearms. Psychiatrist Dr Varma Deyalsingh stated that even if the probability of someone being murdered may appear low, the perception that crime can affect anyone at any time continues to take a toll on citizens.
“You could go out into the community for a walk and become collateral damage, you could be buying doubles, at One Woodbrook Place or even the hospital, and there is nowhere on this small land mass that you could feel safe.”
Deyalsingh explained that the psyche of citizens continued to be strained by violent crimes and that reports suggest that the overall mental health of the public is being affected.