Prime Minister Patrick Manning's popularity is definitely dwindling, even among his own support base, political analysts have agreed. Manning's growing unpopularity stems from a series of recent events and his reaction to them, as well as, the "Rowley and Kamla factors," the Sunday Guardian was told. At least one political scientist felt Manning was "another Panday in the making." Political scientist Dr Indira Rampersad noted, however, that while support for Manning is declining, it is no indication of declining support for the People's National Movement. She noted that the ethnic factor always had a major influence on voting patterns and she believes it will be no different in the next general election.
Attempting to trace the beginning of Manning's unpopularity, Rampersad said, "Usually, when governments or regimes are approaching their third term, they tend to become unpopular." She said there are two main reasons. "A large part of their own support base want change. "Secondly, the government becomes so over-confident that they start to take their own support base for granted. "This over confidence also contributes to irrational actions, where the leader feels he could do anything and get away with it. "This sense of over confidence is conveyed to the population."
PM responded irrationally
Rampersad outlined "some very serious issues" in which Manning responded irrationally.
1. "There's the prophetness issue. Manning responded to this in Parliament by talking about journalists who worked on the story getting a spiritual experience like they never had before."
2. Rampersad said despite public evidence of wrong doing, Manning continues to defend former Udecott chairman, Calder Hart.
"Afro-Trinidadian business may see Hart as a White man getting all the money."
3. The allegations by local artistes that there are millions of dollars in flaws in the National Academy for the Performing Arts (Napa) is another issue that may have caused support for Manning to decline. At the opening of Napa, Manning boasted about the beauty of the building and praised Hart.
4. The "Kamla factor" can be another cause of dwindling support for Manning, Rampersad said.
"Kamla Persad-Bissessar is getting a groundswell of support from the UNC base which can spill over into the general population if Manning's unpopularity continues. "And, if the Congress of the People continues to not present itself as a viable alternative," she added.
'Woman factor may work against him'
Analysing Persad-Bissessar's popularity, she said, "Kamla is carrying her politics in a certain direction. "She exudes a different kind of charisma to (Basdeo) Panday. She comes across as someone who cares about the issues. She's not into petty politicking. "Not that the ethnic card will not play in the next general election. I think it will," Rampersad said. She said the "woman factor" may also be working against Manning. "The fact that she's a woman is different and she may be perceived as more compassionate and humane than a male leader." Rampersad said she hopes that Persad-Bissessar would not "rule like a man" if she assumes power and become like "The Iron Lady," former British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher.
Rampersad said all of these things could impact on the impending local government elections later this year. "I will be cautious to make predictions about the general elections. Our electorate has a short memory and in three years, all could be forgotten. "Politics carry a rationale of its own," she said. Rampersad said Manning is not another Panday in the making because the circumstances that led to Panday's unpopularity were different. She said Panday's age and the fact that he lost two general elections led his supporters to think he was unable to move them from Opposition.
Growing unpopularity
Political scientist Dr Bishnu Ragoonath says Manning's growing unpopularity is forcing him to do a lot of damage control. The PM's damage control methods, unfortunately, seem to be working against him, Ragoonath said. Giving a good example, he recalled the recent "war" that Manning declared with local contractors. Manning, soon after, said he was not engaged in any war with any group in T&T. "Yes, his popularity is definitely dwindling," Ragoonath said. "Even among his own supporters to some extent." He agreed with Rampersad, however, that this does not mean that people will not vote for the PNM. "Manning is the issue, not the PNM," he said.
The party has time on its side
While Ragoonath believes that Manning and Panday "are cut from the same political cloth," he does not believe Manning will necessarily suffer the same fate as Panday, who was humiliatingly booted out of the leadership post by his supporters. "Manning and Panday's political teacher was Dr Eric Williams, who was a maximum leader. "Manning has to lose an election before he is booted out. The PNM has its own internal dynamics in which the party will support the leader, particularly when he is the PM, no matter what." Ragoonath observed that T&T is only now moving to demand change but "is not yet there." Can Manning redeem himself? "One thing the PNM has going for them is a lot of time. "The next general election is in 2012 and may even go to 2013," Ragoonath noted.
At a walkabout in San Juan last Monday, an 81-year old retiree blocked Manning from entering his yard.
He also blocked Manning from greeting other members of his family. He said had been a loyal PNM supporter up to the last election but was now in favour of change.
He complained about the Udecott issue. Rev Courtney Joseph, another resident, said he was embarassed about the Udecott situation.
Manning was also greeted warmly by many during the walkabout.
Former Opposition Leader, Basdeo Panday, was also heckled and cussed during the January 24 United National Congress internal elections in Chandanagore in his own constituency of Couva North.
Panday, in a history-making move, was replaced by Kamla Persad-Bissessar in the elections.