Kalain Hosein
Trinidad and Tobago remains under an Adverse Weather Alert (Yellow Level) from the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) that went into effect at 12:00 AM (midnight) on Wednesday. The Alert, which is in effect until 12:00 PM (noon) on Friday, says the severity of impacts is moderate, and the certainty of the adverse weather event is likely.
In TTMS’ update on Tuesday evening, they say, “There is also a 70% (high) chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms that can produce intense rainfall in excess of 25 millimeters. Gusty winds in excess of 55 KM/H may be experienced especially in the vicinity of heavy showers/thunderstorms. Street/flash flooding and localized ponding are also likely in heavy downpours. Seas can become agitated at times in sheltered areas. Landslides/landslips are also possible in areas so prone.”
For a moderate Adverse Weather Alert, there is the potential for possible injuries, where behavioral changes are required to ensure safety. There may be minor damage to property, with income-earning temporarily disrupted and a couple of communities affected.
The TTMS is advising the public not to wade or drive through flood waters, to secure loose outdoor items and livestock, and monitor weather conditions and official updates.
Inclement weather conditions have only just begun to spread across Trinidad and Tobago, all associated with a tropical disturbance now centered north of Trinidad. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) maintains a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next five days at 60% and 80% respectively.
In the NHC’s Tropical Weather Outlook at 8:00 AM, they explain, “A broad area of low pressure located near the southern Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Radar imagery from Barbados and surface observations indicate that the system has not become any better organized since yesterday. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next several days if the system remains over water while moving generally westward at about 15 mph over the southeastern and southern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force reconnaissance mission is currently en route to investigate the system this morning.”
The National Hurricane Center adds, “Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system.”
The official forecast for Trinidad and Tobago for today from the TTMS calls for “cloudy conditions with occasional light to moderate showers and extended periods of rain. There is the high chance (70-80%) of a few thunderstorms. Conditions expected to persist intermittently overnight.” Seas in open waters are moderate with waves between 2.0 and 2.5 meters, with waves in sheltered areas less than 1.0 meter but occasionally choppy.
