On June 8, 2020 two countries –New Zealand and T&T, made world news by reporting that the last active case of COVID-19 in their respective jurisdictions had recovered thus earning each country the designation of “virus free.” Designed by public health specialists and epidemiologists, elimination to the lay population in New Zealand meant that the virus was gone. In epidemiological terms however it meant bringing cases down to zero or near zero in the country while recognising that cases will still occur but only in persons arriving from overseas.
Decision-makers in New Zealand closed the country’s border––lock-out, on March 19, and on March 25––a level 4 lockdown imposed involving the closure of schools and non-essential workplaces, a ban on social gatherings, severe travel restrictions and so on.
In addition, a programme of testing, contact tracing and surveillance was embarked upon. When zero active cases were achieved on June 8, over 150,000 persons had been tested in a country with a population of just 5 million. The score card then was 1,500 cases and 22 deaths.
For T&T, closure of schools and universities occurred on March 13, lock out on March 22, and lockdown similar to the above for New Zealand one week later. By the time zero active cases were acchieved on June 8th there were 117 confirmed cases with 8 deaths.
Testing at that time including surveillance testing stood at 2,900. Of significance, all cases were imported and there was no community spread.
For both countries the lockout and lockdown measures were severe with thousands of persons losing their jobs, economies crippled, these disasters attended by psycho-social stresses of such magnitude that many persons are forecasted not to recover.
According to news reports the New Zealand announcement on June 8th was greeted with joy around the country. On June 27, 43,000 persons attended a Rugby Game at Eden Park in Auckland; social distancing and wearing of masks were distant memories of a bad era.
PM Ardern further indicated that more cases were likely to be imported as people enter the country but that for now the New Zealand border would remain shut to all but citizens and residents with some limited exceptions; that everybody who does enter had to go into quarantine.
Most readers would recognise this last strategy to be identical to that adopted by T&T decision-makers.
Other COVID-19 strategies for T&T going forward however, markedly differ from those of the kiwis.
T&T decision-makers appear bewildered by the fact that they have arrived at a virus-free environment in the absence of significant testing and have continued to peg the success achieved to lock-down measures embarked upon.
I disagree with this approach.
Positive cases will arise from repatriation efforts and they have; the burden is on the shoulders of the Minister of National Security. I have stated in previous letters that this gentleman should be comforted by the fact that catastrophe will not result from any leakage in the system: COVID-19 struggles to achieve even local spread making community spread virtually impossible. The Minister of National Security can “go brave”.
The Government has been duly commended for the swift and decisive lock-out and lockdown actions taken in mid-to-late March when uncertainty reigned across many countries; a medical disaster may have been averted.
The fact though is that we may have stumbled on to an elimination strategy; or did we? Going forward the Honourable PM must avoid being detracted by his Minister of Health’s penchant for self-aggrandizement.
The knee-jerk decision to roll back bar hours was a backward step and should be reversed. No positive cases will emerge from bar patrons exuberance: the virus will not materialise from thin air. With imminent decisions due on the CPL, election related activities, how to reopen schools in a few weeks, carnival and so many more, T&T decision-makers should proceed with the knowledge that COVID-19 is not endemic in the country and not even border failure(s) would change that. Opportunities exist to ease the tension in T&T and that is sorely needed.
Finally a bit of news. On Sunday PM Jacinda Adern launched her party’s campaign ahead of September 19 general election. Why does that sound familiar?
Kenwyn H. Nicholls
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