Kevin Ramnarine
?The world must now accept that there is a reasonable chance that Donald J Trump will be sitting in the Oval Office come January 20, 2017. In today's crucial Indiana primary, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll puts Trump 15 points ahead of Ted Cruz. There seems to be no stopping Trump's march into Cleveland where he will be the nominee of the Grand Old Party (GOP). Does he have what it takes to win the presidency in November? Seven months is a lifetime in politics.
What does a Trump presidency mean for American foreign policy, geopolitics, global trade flows, travel to the USA and the global economy?
Trump's central thesis says that America has lost its edge in almost every sphere and he intends to "Make America Great Again." What does the New York billionaire believe and what is his world view?
Fundamentally, Trump believes that America has lost its primacy economically, politically and militarily. He identifies China as America's main economic rival. He points to the loss of American manufacturing jobs to China. While there is empirical evidence that supports this view, the trend is wider part of the globalization of supply chains where firms optimise cost and logistics to maximise value. He seems to believe that globalisation has made America economically and politically weaker.
In his recent speech on foreign policy, he rejected what he calls "the false song of globalism." Interestingly, America is the main architect of modern day globalisation.
Trump says that America's enemies think America is weak. He heaps scorn on the Obama administration's nucleur deal with Iran and has promised to renegotiate it. On the issue of radical Islam, he believes that America should tackle ISIS frontally. He vows that when he is Commander in Chief, ISIS days would be numbered. He has said that General Patton would have taken out ISIS in three days.
On the issue of climate change, Trump is an avid non believer. In his book "Crippled America" he dedicates a chapter to energy and climate change where he rejects the international climate change consensus. Were he to become president one wonders how he would treat with America's commitments to the COP 21 agreement. There is now global agreement on the action plan required to rein in climate change. Trump's contrarian view could, therefore, threaten the global policy agenda on climate change.
One of his more popular campaign offerings is the promise to build a wall between Mexico and the USA and to make Mexico pay for it. Firstly, it's been argued that building this wall is impossible from an engineering point of view and secondly, it is not certain how he plans to get Mexico to pay for it.
Trump has obviously touched a chord on the issue of immigration. The same discussion is being stoked by Boris Johnson in Britain, Marie Le Pen in France and the AFD in Germany.
On the issue of trade, he has suggested a 45 per cent tariff on goods imported from China. It's not sure whether he has factored the impact such a tariff would have on inflation in the USA and on the Chinese economy which is in a symbiotic dance with the American economy.
This, however, is the world according to Donald J Trump. In the world according to Trump, America is under siege from China and Japan, who are draining its manufacturing jobs. In the world according to Trump, America has played a weak hand with ISIS and Iran. All this he sees as diminishing America's place in the world. He plans to correct this and a large and growing number of Americans agree with him.
Some years ago a friend recommended to me a book named "The Culture Code" by Clotaire Rapaille. The book looks at political and economic behavior through the lens of culture. The book has a chapter that examines the American presidency.
The author concludes that the American people look for a rebel as their president. He traces this conclusion all the way back to America's first president, George Washington, who led a rebellion. He also concludes that with the exception of the 1976 (Carter vs Ford) election, every recent Presidential competition has been won by the candidate who is the aggressor and the bigger fighter.
If Rapaille's thesis holds true, Hillary Clinton could be in for the fight of her life. All polls show her ahead of Trump in head-to-head match ups. The average margin is around 7.3 per cent.
In the ebb and flow of American politics 7.3 per cent isn't much of a cushion. Of all people, Clinton knows this. In 2007 she was 28 per cent ahead of the then Junior Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, only to see that lead decimated. To add to the intrigue Clinton is being investigated by the FBI over her alleged use of a private server to conduct official government business.
The next seven months in the political life of the country that lays claim to having world's largest economy and most powerful military will be interesting. If you think what happens in American politics doesn't affect you, think again.
�2Kevin Ramnarine served as minister of energy during the previous administration