raphael.lall@guardian.co.tt
The frightening levels of crime in this country could be much worse by the end of the decade, according to a new report from the University of the West Indies (UWI). The study done by the Head of UWI’s Criminology Department Dr Randy Seepersad shows that by 2025 the annual murder count will climb to 632 and to 710 by 2030. There were 450 murders last year.
Under the category of wounding and shootings, where 675 incidents were recorded last year, the numbers will rise to 755 by 2025 and 805 by 2030.
Seepersad said he prepared the report using statistics from the T&T Police Service (TTPS) Crime and Problem Analysis Branch (CAPA) for 1990 to 2019 to predict values up to 2030.
“There are statistical models using trend analysis and you can predict where crime will go in the next five years and the next ten years,” he explained.
“In this case, using computer modelling, it predicted the trends up to 2030 and what the trends are showing is that crime is going to increase.”
The study focused on young people under age 29 but does not specify the geographical areas where crime will rise as Seepersad did not have economic deprivation data disaggregated according to location. However, he said communities hit hardest by unemployment are the most likely to be affected by increasing crime.
“Crime in Trinidad and Tobago (and in most parts of the world) tends to be spatially concentrated within certain communities, divisions, etc. This concentration tends to be very stable, so we should expect an increase in crime in areas which are already considered to be high-crime areas. However, we now have a push factor (higher levels of economic deprivation) which is much more nationally widespread and more intense than before,” he said.
“This most likely could result in a widening of the areas which become high-crime, meaning that other areas which would not traditionally have been considered high-crime, may now become high-crime. With respect to demographics, that would remain the same as before, meaning young people, usually 29 or under, will be in the majority as perpetrators.”
Reasons for increased crime
“One of the factors that are going to affect us and make the crime levels worse than the predicted crime levels is the level of hopelessness and joblessness and economic stress that is happening in the country. An example of how Trinidad and Tobago has reached economic desperation is copper cables being cut. In some communities in the south, every line is cut and hanging and the middle piece is missing. People have to reach a level of desperation to do this. We as a country must ask what is next beyond that,” Seepersad said.
He said these conditions have pushed people to the point of desperation where they commit crimes to survive.
He added: “There is nothing in the society to remedy this. There are certain communities in Trinidad and Tobago, those depressed and socially isolated communities, these youths have been experiencing an extreme level of this over a period of time, so these youths feel they have no other option but to join criminal gangs to make money from drug money or whatever. Their backs are against the wall. Government after government has failed to be proactive and imaginative in how to revive these communities.”
Apart from social issues, Seepersad identified the performance of the TTPS as another factor that could contribute to an increase in crime
“The biggest thing with the police would be in improving detection rates. Many things have to be considered to improve that, for example, greater use of a wider range of technologies, more extensive training in crime scene investigation, improvements in the processes at the Forensic Science Centre, reducing corruption, etc.”
Underscoring the need for a greater focus on crime detection, he pointed out: “The approaches used by previous governments have consistently focused on crime suppression (use of police, courts and prisons) but have ignored the root causes of crime. Only if we deal with these would the crime situation be improved.
“Suppressive approaches leave the root causes intact, which will result in a continuation of the crime problem. We need both the preventative and suppressive approaches.”
Police-involved killings
Police-involved killings of young people in east Port-of-Spain led to unrest in 2020 and as recently as last month. Seepersad, who addressed the issue in a report he wrote last November, said that based on the data the problem is not as bad as in other countries in the region.
“Comparatively speaking the number of persons killed in some regional countries like Brazil where there are 5,000 people killed per annum by the police is much higher. In countries like Colombia and Venezuela, there is a joint army and police responsible for controlling crime and the number of deaths far exceeds anything in Trinidad and Tobago.
“We cannot take every incident on police killings and says it meets the criteria for a murder. At the same time, there are incidents that are unwarranted and some countries like Canada have stopped the pursuit on foot because too often someone is running away from you and the only way to stop them is to shoot them. They are running away and they are not shooting at the police. It ends up in a fatality.
“There was a video locally of police who shot a guy and he was on the ground and they shot him again. Was it the heat of the moment, or was it a lack of police training? Because if the person was already immobilized on the ground having been shot once, why shoot the person again?”
Seepersad said there is a use of force policy that recommends officers use the lowest level of force possible and only step it up if there are certain clear justifications.
“These cases are thoroughly investigated by the Professional Standards Bureau (PSB) and the Police Complaints Authority (PCA) which are both mandated under the law and they have the capacity to properly investigate and if necessary direct the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) to prosecute if it is needed. Too often you hear the police saying one thing and the residents saying something else. There’s no way to resolve that unless there’s footage,” he said.
Noting that scientifically it cannot be said that there is a trend of police shooting young people in disadvantaged areas, he explained: “A trend refers to a numerical progression of something that is predictable. So it’s a table and it’s going upward in a predictable way, or it’s going downward in a predictable way, so we can’t say three youths were killed two years ago and now there are more shootings and say it is a trend. That’s not a trend.
“What people must do is look at numbers over a period of time. Let’s say ten years at least and look at the annual numbers, that’s how you define trend mathematically.”
The acting CoP’s response
Acting Police Commissioner McDonald Jacob said he is not surprised by the projections made by UWI’s Criminology Department. He expressed his appreciation for the university’s willingness to contribute to the discussion on crime.
Noting that the outcome of the analysis depends on the quantitative and qualitative data utilised by the researcher, Jacob said such findings are taken into account by the TTPS and will influence strategies, tactics and initiatives. This is done to ensure that the negative projection or prediction is not fulfilled, he explained.
“I’m also a criminologist and I encourage our analysts to conduct different types of analysis that can assist the TTPS in adopting a more scientific approach in combating crime,” he said.
“That is what the university is all about, to do the projections that are helpful for law enforcement and provide a better understanding to the population about deviant behaviour and solutions that can be implemented.”
The acting CoP added: “The TTPS has enhanced case management approaches to ensure that when persons are charged the files are prepared swiftly for court. The basic principle of the retributive approach of quick justice may help to act as a deterrent to offenders. We are also ramping up our first line of defence in policing to prevent crime which is an effective patrol regime. The recent increase in vehicles and motorcycles will result in an increased police presence and the police response time will be reduced tremendously.”
He said the TTPS is focusing on the removal of illegal firearms from the streets and the dismantling of criminal gangs
Jacobs, who also defended the TTPS detection rate, added: “For serious crimes, it is 34 per cent. The minimum standard required internationally is 35 per cent. In some divisions of the TTPS, we are over 35 per cent, while in some we are under. What we need to improve is our detection of murders, which is an average of 21 per cent. With the recent improvement in the availability of DNA and ballistics evidence, it is expected to increase. Ballistics evidence played a significant role in the solving of recent murders.”