As of early this week, the Copenhagen Climate conference had hit two speed bumps slowing down progress on the possibility of the international community achieving a meaningful and binding agreement to slow the advance of severe and damaging changes in the earth's climate balance. The Chinese government has dug in its heels on allowing external monitors to observe its commitment to lower its greenhouse emissions by 40 to 45 per cent. The second snag originated with a group of African nations whose delegates walked out of the Monday meeting preparing the agreement for leaders to sign. The African nations protested what they saw as a deliberate attempt to sideline them from having a full say in conference matters of significance. The representatives of the African countries are demanding that the rich countries sign a binding treaty committing them to transfer large sums of wealth to the developing world to assist with countering the most negative effects of climate change. And here the African and Group of 77 countries, which represents the interests of the developing countries, continue to insist that it is the industrialised nations which have over-exploited the world environment and reaped the large benefits, therefore it is those countries which have to pay for the regeneration of the world climate.
While not being anywhere close to fatal injuries to the Copenhagen conference, the issues raised have staked-out the positions countries of the developing world are likely to assume when the leaders arrive and begin to join the discussions over the next couple days. At the same time that China is insisting that it will monitor its own gas emissions reduction programme, the United States is saying that the emissions targets of the Chinese government are too low, perhaps signalling a position that US President Barack Obama will adopt when he joins the discussions and negotiations. One suggestion is that refusing to budge from its position on no internal monitoring by an international group is a typical Chinese negotiating strategy: wait until the conference is about to mash-up in disarray before agreeing to the most minimal adjustment of their position. At the time of going to press, that situation has not been reached, but it is sure to get there when the likes of presidents Obama and Hu Jintao sit around the negotiating table to attempt to finalise agreement on what has been described as the "most complicated and difficult agenda" ever attempted by the United Nations. What is certain is that China, with its newly found status as manufacturer of the world and coming industrial power, will not be easily, if at all, pushed around by the US/European combine.
What is more, the Chinese have been seeking support alliances with the bloc of developing countries. China must certainly be intent on using its involvement in construction and other kinds of projects around the developing world to give it some credibility amongst the G77 membership. One expects that in a similar fashion, the developing countries will use the status they share with China and India to get what they want out of the industrialised world before they agree to any treaty. Meanwhile, before leaving New York for the Danish capital, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon got the drift of the conference and negotiations by the technocrats. He is therefore warning of the dangers of "posturing or blaming." He said "if everything is left to leaders to resolve at the last minute, we risk having a weak deal or no deal at all and this will be a failure of potentially catastrophic consequences." World leaders cannot shrink from the task at hand.