The word "risk" is one of the most ubiquitous concepts in that it is present in everything that we do. Every action or even inaction carries a risk. Risk is something that can either be accepted, managed, transferred or avoided. In order to choose any of these paths you first need to understand what risk is and then, specifically, identify the risk that you are dealing with. Note, risk is often in the eye of the beholder and may mean different things to different people in different times and circumstances.
I will deal with various aspects risk over time but the focus today is on investment risk.
Understanding investment risk is essential to making good investment decisions. More importantly, there are many people who invest but have not quite grasped the concept of risk and how it impacts on investments. Further, the investment landscape and your life circumstances are both ever evolving so appreciate that risk is not static but is also constantly changing.
Recognise that risk is defined differently by an investor and by a portfolio manager and many times these differences in definition leads to misunderstanding between both parties. A good starting point in terms of investor education is to discuss risk from the perspective of the portfolio manager. This will hopefully give you an insight into what is occurring when you sit in front of an investment adviser to discuss how to invest your money.
Measuring risk
The first point to appreciate is that risk is measurable and this is done by calculating the volatility of returns or the price volatility for a stock, bond or any other asset. So from the perspective of a portfolio manager, risk is not about gains, losses, fear, not being able to retire or going on a vacation. Risk, in this context, is a statistical measure that can be numerically defined. The most common measure of risk is the standard deviation of returns. However, instead of going into the details of how this is calculated, you might better appreciate the concept via an example.
Let's take two hypothetical companies, Steelband Ltd and Calypso Ltd. You paid $11.65 a share for Steelband a year ago and, at the same time, $15 a share for Calypso. The table shows their share prices at the end of each month.
Both stocks earned a rate of return of 20 per cent for the year (rounded to the nearest whole number). On the face of it you will probably think it did not matter which company's share you held in your portfolio.
A closer look at the table reveals that Steelband's share price was more volatile than Calypso's.
Returning to the math, the standard deviation of Steelbank's stock was $3.02 or 21 per cent of the average month-end share price of $14.58. Calypso's share price had a monthly standard deviation of $2.77. This was only 16 per cent of its average month end share price of $16.80
Risk and return are related.
Greater risk should result in a greater rate of return and vice versa. This is called the risk-return trade-off. Both companies generate the same annual return of 20 per cent but it was decidedly less risky to invest in Calypso than in Steelband. Calypso was therefore the more "valued" investment because it carried a lower risk/return profile than Steelband.
The above scenario applies to all assets, not just shares in the stock market. You can categorise almost any class of assets by the degree of risk. Stocks have historically been considered riskier than bonds and bonds riskier than cash. Note that this assessment is simply based on potential volatility of returns. If one were to look at risk from a different context you are likely to get a different analysis. That issue will be dealt with in subsequent columns.
In addition, within each asset class (eg companies listed on the stock market) some investments are riskier are others. It is therefore imperative you understand the risks associated with the companies that you are investing in.
Among those investments that are considered to have a lower degree of risk are balanced mutual funds, money market accounts and cash deposits which are insured with the Deposit Insurance Corporation. Investing in government-backed instruments–treasury bills and bonds–are considered among the safest of all investments. However, they also offer the lowest comparative returns.
Your tolerance to risk
In order to put together an investment portfolio, an adviser will want to assess your tolerance to risk.
Recognise again that this is an assessment of how you see investment risk as defined by your investment adviser. It may not be the same as your concept of risk but it is a starting point for the conversation on risk.
Your risk tolerance is an approximate measure of your willingness to accept investment risk. If you are termed an aggressive investor, you're more likely to accept the risk of losing some of your investment in exchange for the chance to earn a higher rate of return. I do not like the concept of aggressive, moderate or conservative profiles for investors since my research shows that it often leads to suboptimal investment decisions that are not in the investors best interest.
However, this is the perspective from which the industry and even the regulators approach the issue of risk so this is where the conversation has to start.
After assessing your risk profile the next step is to determine if your current financial circumstances support your risk tolerance. You may have the appetite for risk but may not have the resources to satisfy this appetite. Once you have put this together, select the assets you would like to have as investments in order to meet your objectives.
For specific investment advice, you should consult a financial adviser.
Ian Narine is a broker/dealer and investment adviser registered with the SEC.