Members of Parliament didn’t need Parliament’s glass lectern to hold their notes during yesterday’s statements, arguing and posturing.
On Monday, when the lectern’s brought out to accommodate Finance Minister Dave Tancoo’s 2026 Budget, it will have to be sturdy.
So weighty are the expectations and hopes - by public and Government - for this first Budget of the Kamla Persad-Bissessar United National Congress (UNC) administration; its first product for assessment since entering office.
Weight is required to retain the spotlight amid various factors and developments.
Whatever repair, remittance or relief, it’s required to be stellar enough to enhance the UNC’s light, meeting existing/upcoming demands amid yesterday’s oil price—in US$60s.
Government’s Budget has already suffered self-inflicted snafus affecting credibility.
First broken promise: the Prime Minister’s “early October” Budget arriving late-mid month.
Budget date bungling: premature leak, then UNC Facebook announcement, Tancoo’s WhatsApp confirmation - lastly, Finance Ministry public announcement.
The biggest challenge is the shadow cast on Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar’s administration by the re-arrest of her deputy leader/Housing Minister David Lee and businessman Hugh Leong Poi.
It’s ahead whether the PM’s vindicated on retaining Lee as minister - breaking her rule in Government and Opposition days that charged persons depart to clear their name.
Lee, as Opposition Whip when he was first charged, had no ministerial post and remained Whip. Sitting now on Government’s front bench, three seats from the PM, his spotlight as someone on $1 million bail for alleged fraud and misbehaviour in public office charges, overhangs Government’s side and his actions.
With re-arrest early in the new Government’s term, to fend off negative image, the PM, with 26-plus MPs, may feel comfortable enough to stand by Lee, reinforcing innocence-until-proven-guilty stance. He’d be seen otherwise if she’d removed him. While distancing Government from his matter, it would still dent UNC’s political profile.
Lee’s re-arrest, just after last Saturday’s reassignment of ministers, triggered queries on if his development was among reasons for the changes. Lee’s Housing Ministry lost four aspects - another fact overhead when he speaks in debate.
Reassignments so early in the term spawned queries on the wisdom of the first Cabinet appointments. But changes unveil UNC’s direction. Certain ministers with key management responsibilities. PM supervising public assistance provision and constitutional reform - founder Basdeo Panday’s pet project. Portfolios expanded further empowering certain young ministers. Others reduced. Attorney General ominously helming the Government’s investigatory thrust.
Beyond former prime minister Dr Keith Rowley’s criticisms, award of the OFAC licence for the Dragon Gas project still has to await developments—including regarding US/Venezuela tensions - before it’s seen where the six-month licence could take T&T.
Indeed, uncertainty was signalled by the PM’s subsequent release on talks with other energy players.
With six months to organise the issue with Venezuela—and US support for arrangements that don’t benefit the Nicolas Maduro regime - the US advance seeking military base in neighbouring Grenada has escalated speculation about movements towards a new Venezuelan administration before six months.
“Venezuela’s ‘Dragon doors’ would be open if approached more respectfully,” was yesterday’s comment to the column on T&T’s chances.
With expectation and demands prompted by UNC’s promises and “Everybody wins/Fix it” anthem, Tancoo’s Budget will pronounce whether that’s reality or rubbish.
A tighter, fiscally responsible package amid T&T’s increasing constraints - balancing priorities, plus other public provision—was telegraphed by Tancoo’s hints.
Temper expectations. The likelihood of provision for public servants’ negotiations being their only Christmas gift until 2026. Promises being kept over five years (not one). Some aspects may make him unpopular.
Tancoo’s tips have had to ease UNC down from its self-assigned “Fix It pedestal, trashing all things People’s National Movement-tenured. This, amid negative landscape of state enterprise management slashing and thousands of job losses after UNC won the General Election.
A decision on the State of Emergency’s expected among Budget contributions.
Content will confirm the depth of UNC’s regard for Farley Augustine’s Tobago House of Assembly - and who needs who. Whether THA’s requested $3.71 billion will sweeten Tobago’s Carnival, a nudge on needs was sent by Augustine’s party opening nominations for the THA elections ahead.
The PNM expects an avalanche of allegations from ministers, seeking to counter Lee’s negative spotlight.
Whatever Budget contents, reviews - for all - follow.