Today marks the official start of the 2024 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin comprising the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. It is predicted to be an active season.
This is a matter that is usually not treated with much urgency in T&T, but recent ominous forecasts about what the next six months will make it more important than ever that citizens be prepared for any eventuality.
Multiple alarms have been sounded by reputable forecasters, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University among them, about аbоvе normal activity expected іn thе Аtlаntіс Ваѕіn.
The need for Caribbean countries to be prepared for some rough weather was reinforced yesterday by the Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF), with its warning that 2024 will be a year of climate extremes for this region.
The message is clear, citizens have to brace for severe weather impacts from frequent tropical cyclones or other shower activity, with “copious wet season rainfall” expected.
One group of forecasters, known for the accuracy of their predictions, said there will be 17 tо 25 nаmеd ѕtоrms this year, with eight tо 13 ехресtеd tо bесоmе hurrісаnеѕ, and fоur tо ѕеvеn developing into mајоr hurrісаnеѕ in the range of Саtеgоrу 3 оr ѕtrоngеr.
Since in an average season, there are approximately 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, these forecasts should not be ignored.
This expected supercharged 2024 hurricane season will be the result of Lа Nіñа, when there will be less of the wind shear that usually rips storms apart.
Another factor is warmer than average sea surface temperatures providing more energy to fuel tropical cyclone development. The deeper and warmer the ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.
Already this year, in the section of ocean between the Lesser Antilles and West Africa, where stronger hurricanes are known to form, there has been as much heat since March and April as is typical for early July. This is an ominous sign of increased hurricane season activity.
Other factors of note, based on weather patterns in recent years, are the intensity and longevity of tropical systems and the increased potential for systems to undergo rapid intensification before they make landfall.
While this does not mean that a high-impact hurricane season is inevitable, these are strong indicators that the odds are higher, so citizens across the Caribbean, including those of us located just outside the traditional path of storms, need to prepare for any eventuality.
Taking a proactive approach to this increasingly challenging climate landscape can make a difference in lives and livelihoods.
The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM) and first responders all have their part to play in the event of a weather emergency, but there are also responsibilities for heads of households, property owners, caregivers and all competent adults to shoulder.
This is particularly important for those living in coastal areas and communities prone to floods and landslides.
Experiences of recent years have demonstrated that all it takes is a torrential downpour — and it does not have to be associated with a tropical cyclone — to cause catastrophic flooding and destructive landslides in parts of this country
As a small island developing state on the frontlines of the global climate crisis, T&T can’t afford to be complacent about this hurricane season.