From Friday to Sunday evening, the election campaign pace will be at a hectic, partisan frenzy.
Party campaign stalwarts in centralised and constituency centres; on telephones, on social media and in the field, will be doing whatever they can to get people motivated and out on election day. They hope to achieve this by a combination of stimulation of spontaneous enthusiasm and organised effort, to convince people to cast their vote for their candidate and party next Monday. And the ads will be running.
As of now, five days before election, voter interest is there, but infectious party energy is on the lower end. Except for the decidedly partisan, many voters seem unsure of what to think and do.
The first choice is whether to vote at all. This will affect turnout at the polls. A high voter turnout reflects faith in the electoral and democratic processes and helps to legitimise the outcome. A very low turnout means people are tired, fed up, burnt out, and do not think well of candidates and parties. Sometimes it can mean they are not invested in the outcome because they do not think it will make a difference to the things that matter in their lives. Both major parties have spoken of voter suppression and have been pulling out all stops to urge supporters to vote. This means they have some sense of reality on the ground.
It is possible that how well parties have grasped the challenges the electorate identifies as important, how well they have put these across, and how credible or convincing their articulated solutions have been, can make a difference to enthusiasm in their favour.
I cannot tell for instance, whether the crime issue has been effectively dealt with from the voters’ point of view. Professor Hamid Ghany’s poll reveals citizens do not feel the State of Emergency was effective. Which means citizens do not feel safer or better protected.
What then, would convince people that a party in government will improve their safety and security? Is it a new Minister of National Security? Is it a Ministry of Efficiency? Is it to split the Ministry of National Security, with one arm having a Home Affairs focus? Is it giving out licenced guns to deserving citizens? Is it a targeted assault on the gang and criminal organisation culture?
A comprehensive answer to this on the platforms has not been clear.
I don’t think any party has said they will address corruption and complicity in the police, military and prison service - a precursor for law-and-order effectiveness. Has there been any commitment to launch an all-out assault on gangs and the gang culture; reorganise police presence for citizen safety and protection in communities, division by division and police station by police station to deal with the now? What about the connection of this to a longer term, coherent plan for law, order, justice, fair play, citizen protection, safety and peace in T&T, based on a legislative agenda and systemwide reform? On this latter issue, the UNC has put forward some ideas.
How are we going to deal with the financing problem for the country - which is a straight question of reduced revenue unable to meet expenditure because of lower production of natural gas and oil? How will any government address the raising of revenue? What expenditure will government choose to cut and why? Will there be fallout and how will that be dealt with? The PNM has put forward some revenue-generating measures.
It is true that waste, corruption and mismanagement, effectively and systematically dealt with, can result in savings. And the UNC has spoken of reverting to stronger procurement law. But that will not solve our forex revenue problem, which is the result of lower energy revenues, balance of trade issues, limited export capacity and achievement, and little investment linked to new, non-energy export growth. Has the question of the mounting debt and debt servicing demands, some in forex, come up meaningfully in the campaign at all?
Is the electorate convinced either party has a handle on this and truthfully addressed the need for management of a transition?
And with Dragon and Manatee in limbo, until some point of possible resolution, how will we now, against this background, fast-track diversification, self-sufficiency and economic and financial sustainability based on a methodical, implementable plan of recovery? Both parties have spoken on some of this but are people convinced?
The election turnout, outcome, margin of victory, and impact of split votes will probably let us all know what people really think and feel.