Despite escalating geopolitical friction between T&T and Venezuela, investor confidence remains fundamentally intact—at least in the long term—according to Professor Emeritus of International Relations at the University of Miami, Anthony Bryan.
His perspective offers a counterweight to growing alarm among local businessleaders, who warn that recent developments could destabilise investment sentiment and jeopardise key economic sectors.
Bryan dismissed concerns that the abrupt suspension of the Dragon gas agreement and the diplomatic fallout surrounding the USS Gravely’s arrival would have lasting consequences.
“Business is business,” he stated. “These events are what they are, but they don’t affect investor confidence in the long term...Politicians say crazy things all the time. Sometimes they have a short-term effect. But in the final analysis, economics always trumps politics, regardless of what they say. A lot of people say the other thing, that politics trumps economics. I believe economics always survives.”
However, he acknowledged that short-term hesitation is possible.
“You might see an immediate dip in investment profile—meaning investors may hold back for a few days, weeks, or even months until the situation becomes clearer. But that doesn’t alter their long-range objectives.”
His remarks come amid growing unease rooted in developments that have cast a shadow over the region’s economic stability.
Foremost among these is the suspension of all energy agreements between T&T and Venezuela—a move that not only disrupts energy cooperation but also underscores T&T’s vulnerability to regional volatility.
The arrival of the USS Gravely on Sunday for joint military exercises, condemned by Venezuela as provocative, has further inflamed diplomatic sensitivities and amplified investor concerns.
Asked about the role of T&T’s leadership in shaping the bilateral dynamic, Bryan was candid.
He criticised recent remarks by Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar suggesting that T&T does not need Venezuela.
“I think she should keep quiet,” Bryan said. “Her statements are provocative and subject to misinterpretation. They don’t help the situation.”
In response to these developments, industry leaders, however, have sounded the alarm.
They warn that the intensifying friction could destabilise investor sentiment and potentially jeopardise key economic sectors across the nation.
Among the most vocal is the Greater Tunapuna Chamber of Industry and Commerce (GTCIC), which told the Business Guardian that investor confidence is fundamentally tied to predictability and security.
Building on this point, the GTCIC emphasised that any perception of T&T being drawn into regional instability or geopolitical conflict could prompt both international and local investors to reassess the long-term risk premium associated with this market. This recalibration could have far-reaching consequences.
The chamber further noted that the energy sector—T&T’s financial backbone—is particularly exposed to the current political dynamics.
It explained, “Investor confidence thrives in environments that are predictable, secure and diplomatically balanced.
“Any perception of instability or geopolitical risk can influence how international and local investors assess T&T’s market—particularly in relation to long-term investments in the energy, logistics, and infrastructure sectors.”
Beyond energy, the GTCIC highlighted immediate risks to the maritime, port, and logistics sectors. These industries, which facilitate essential trade and movement across the Gulf of Paria, are likely to encounter headwinds such as increased insurance costs, elevated shipping risks and a diminished appetite for expansion and modernisation projects.
Importantly, the chamber warned that these negative financial effects would not be confined to large corporations. Instead, they are expected to ripple through the domestic economy—impacting local supply chains, placing pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and ultimately threatening employment opportunities across these interconnected sectors.
In light of these risks, the GTCIC underscored the urgent need for T&T to present itself as a stable, neutral, and investment-friendly jurisdiction—one that is open for business and grounded in the rule of law, good governance and respect for international norms.
Echoing these concerns, Greater San Fernando Chamber of Commerce (GSFCC) president Kiran Singh noted that the recent escalation in tensions could dampen investor and business confidence, particularly if the situation worsens or persists. He cautioned that any sign of cross-border hostility—especially with a large neighbour like Venezuela—raises fears about regional security and political uncertainty.
Singh further explained that heightened tensions could erode confidence in other sectors such as infrastructure, logistics, IT and AI, all of which depend heavily on foreign capital and long-term investment.
While acknowledging that Venezuela’s decision to suspend gas contracts is regrettable, Singh expressed cautious optimism that it would not significantly derail T&T’s energy plans in the short to medium term.
He pointed out that these contracts are not currently income-generating and reiterated the Government’s stance that T&T’s energy security and economic future are not dependent on any single external agreement.
Nevertheless, Singh stressed that the suspension of the Dragon gas project reinforces the importance of pursuing a diversified energy strategy—one that includes maximising local deepwater gas production, accelerating renewable energy initiatives and strengthening partnerships with trusted regional and international allies.
He concluded that this development highlights the broader need for economic diversification, which could become a more robust driver of foreign exchange.
Adding another layer to the conversation, Fyzabad Chamber of Commerce president Angie Jairam warned that any sign of tension or “haste” in a war of words could escalate unnecessarily, leading to uncertainty, loss of confidence and diplomatic rupture.
Jairam advocated for clear and calm communication, grounded in fact-based and timely updates on security, infrastructural changes, and trade routes.
She also called for contingency planning to protect trade and energy sectors, continuous diplomatic engagement, and practical mitigation strategies to reassure investors.
“Key sectors such as finance, central bank, and investment institutions should communicate openly and reaffirm long-term continuity,” she added.
Meanwhile, the Chaguanas Chamber of Commerce offered a more tempered perspective.
While it does not foresee any immediate threat to investor confidence, it acknowledged that sustained diplomatic strain could influence investment timelines and decision-making in sensitive sectors such as trade and energy cooperation.
It noted that whenever there is uncertainty in regional relations, investors would obviously adopt a cautious approach as they assess potential implications for trade, energy cooperation, and economic activity.
The chamber said does not foresee any immediate threat to investor confidence, but acknowledged that sustained tension could influence investment timelines or decision-making in certain sectors.
