Professor of Economics at the University of the West Indies (UWI) Roger Hosein is convinced that the new book which he coauthored offers solutions for some of the pressing social and economic challenges that T&T faces at the moment.
Hosein is one of the contributing authors of the new book, “Sixty Years of Independence: Achievements, Challenges and the Road Ahead for T&T” which was launched last Thursday at the UWI campus, St. Augustine.
The book, broken up into 12 chapters, explores T&T’s developmental challenges over the last 60 plus years.
In an interview with the Business Guardian, Hosein explained how the book was conceptualised.
“I actually thought of the book in December 2021 and raised the idea with Dr Bhoe Tewarie and economist Dr Rebecca Gookool-Bosland and we decided to do it in recognition of the upcoming 60th anniversary of Independence in 2022. This was an opportunity to reflect on national progress since 1962 on a sector-by-sector basis and identify best practices and lessons learned to pivot the economy in the future.”
He also mentioned some of the contributors and themes that the book includes
“Former Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine provides a comprehensive account of 60 years of oil and gas. Wendy-Ann Isaac and team explore food security and agriculture. Jerome De Lisle and his colleagues take us through the trajectory of education. Judith Gobin and her co-authors remind us of the fragility of our environment. Garvin Heerah assesses crime management over the decades. Nigel Williams provides insights into domestic manufacturing. Dr Vanus James, and his respective team, provide sharp insights into, trade, economy and Tobago’s development. The common thread is this: independence has been both an achievement and an unfinished project.”
Hosein said 63 Years of Independence reminds the country that progress has been uneven, that achievements coexist with unfinished business.
“Kevin Ramnarine showed us how oil and gas shaped both fortune and vulnerability. Wendy-Ann Isaac and her colleagues demonstrated that food security remains elusive. Jerome De Lisle and his team reminded us of the urgent need to rethink education. Judith Gobin and her co-authors highlighted environmental fragility. Garvin Heerah illustrated the persistent challenge of crime. And through trade, manufacturing, and macroeconomic analysis, the book traced the structural issues that continue to define the economy. Dr James and his team prioritised Tobago in national development, and Dr Tewarie provided key lessons to help us prepare for the future.”
Based on these contributions, Hosein said the task before the country now is to ensure that the next 60 years are not defined by repetition of old cycles but by transformation, coherence, and shared prosperity.
Developmental solutions
Hosein spoke about some of the solutions offered in the book and the current challenges that T&T faces.
He mentioned the Venezuelan migrants in T&T and how they can be used to benefit the economy.
He said T&T should take further steps to better utilise the Venezuelan immigrant labour force by registering migrants, regularising a proportion with work permits, and directing placements toward agriculture and manufacturing. This would reduce informality, lift productivity in non-energy tradables, and even possibly help to ease the food import bill.
He also argued that the Government should also pursue Fiscal Responsibility Legislation (FRL) anchored in clear fiscal rules.
“A framework with a debt anchor, an overall balance limit, and an expenditure rule, reinforced by escape clauses and an independent fiscal council, would help contain fiscal slippage. Codifying targets, monitoring, and corrective mechanisms would curb procyclicality (spending more when export revenues increase), rebuild buffers, and restore credibility after a dozen years of persistent deficits and rising transfers. This rules-based approach has been adopted globally, and its absence in here leaves fiscal policy vulnerable to the volatility of energy rents.”
At the same time, he said there must be a concerted effort to strengthen non-energy revenue collection.
“Closing VAT and compliance gaps, operationalising the T&T Revenue Authority (TTRA), and implementing property and gambling taxation will broaden the base and stabilise revenues independent of hydrocarbons. Greater use of digital filing, audit analytics, and rationalisation of exemptions could substantially raise efficiency.”
Hosein added that reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and transfers is another critical step.
“SOEs should operate under harder budget constraints, with tariffs gradually aligned to cost-reflective pricing and targetted vouchers deployed to protect vulnerable households. Borrowing should be tied strictly to entity capacity, while updated strategic plans and performance dashboards covering return on investment, liquidity, and debt coverage should be mandatory. Such measures would reduce the frequency of bailouts and free fiscal space for productive capital investment.”
He also said the foreign exchange market also requires reform.
“A move toward greater flexibility would improve allocative efficiency and competitiveness, while macroprudential safeguards would help contain volatility. This must be paired with export-oriented reforms in manufacturing, ICT, services, and agriculture so that the growth engine shifts from non-tradables to tradables. The current arrangement has led to distortions in pricing and rationing of foreign exchange; greater flexibility, if carefully managed, can support long-run diversification.”
He added that in parallel, policymakers should prioritise competitive import substitution.
“The Government and T&T Manufacturers Association (TTMA), working together, can publish a transparent list of products where the country can import-substitute competitively in terms of cost, quality, and scale. Sharing this list with the commercial banks and the Eximbank can possibly allow credit and foreign exchange allocation to align with national priorities. Convening producers to verify capacity, alongside cluster infrastructure for packaging, testing, and logistics, can ensure that import substitution raises productivity without replicating the inefficiencies of past protectionist policies.”
T&T at 63
On Sunday, T&T celebrates its 63rd year since independence and Hosein said since independence in 1962, T&T has made clear strides in building its fiscal and labour institutions, yet the country’s economic records shows that resilience remain unfinished business.
“Fiscal management in the early decades was challenged by structural deficits averaging two to four per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but the oil boom of the 1970s demonstrated the state’s ability to mobilise hydrocarbon rents, delivering surpluses above four per cent of GDP and financing ambitious infrastructure and social programmes.”
He said these achievements, however, were not sustained as the 1980s oil price collapse triggered deficits of six per cent of GDP and external debt accumulation above US$2 billion, revealing the dangers of procyclical spending.
“Later episodes, such as the gas-led expansion of 1994–2008, showed that surpluses and fiscal consolidation are possible, but persistent deficits since 2009, widened to nearly 11 per cent during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlight the need for deeper savings mechanisms and stricter expenditure discipline to anchor stability.”
He said the broader growth record shows that while energy rents have enabled periods of rapid expansion, they have not consistently translated into higher living standards.
“A scatterplot of energy output and GDP per capita over 1962–2025 reveals only a weak correlation, underscoring the limits of relying on hydrocarbons alone. Achievements in infrastructure, education, and fiscal capacity have been tangible, but they have been financed largely through cyclical windfalls rather than sustained productivity gains.”
More than six decades on, Hosein said the record is one of both accomplishment and unfinished reform.
“T&T has demonstrated that it can use booms to reduce unemployment, generate fiscal surpluses and expand its economic base. The challenge is ensuring that these gains are not reversed in downturns. Building durable buffers, enforcing countercyclical fiscal rules, and investing in high-value non-energy exports are the next frontier if the promise of independence is to be fully realised.”
