Incumbent Moruga/Tableland MP Clifton De Coteau is disputing the findings of a Guardian Media Ltd-commissioned poll which shows him as having only 36 per cent favourability in his constituency.
In fact, De Coteau said not only was he going to retain his seat but he estimated he would be able to steal some 1,500 votes away from the People's National Movement (PNM) in the upcoming general election.
He was speaking in an interview after the sod-turning ceremony for an activity centre in Barrackpore, yesterday.
Early results from the poll, which was conducted by H.H.B & Associates for GML, was published in the Sunday Guardian.
"When they talk about favourability rating I wonder if they went into one of the polling areas up there in Guayaguayare or if they did it in the PNM heartland?" De Coteau asked.
"I know that we will win. I am very confident I am going to win it (seat) back, I think we will get about 13,000 votes this time," he added.
De Coteau said since 2010 he had made inroads into many PNM "heartland" areas in the constituency and won over many hardcore PNM supporters.
Voters in the deep South marginal constituency of Moruga/Tableland have bucked the trend of recent polls of marginals, with two-thirds of respondents saying that they are "likely" or "very likely" to vote.
An H.H.B & Associates poll, commissioned by Guardian Media Ltd, found that only 12 per cent considered themselves "unlikely" or "very unlikely" to vote.
That is the complete opposite to the previously sampled constituency, St Joseph, where a combined 62 per cent were "unlikely" and "very unlikely" to vote.
Moruga/Tableland also bucked the trend of polls in other marginals, when voters were asked who they considered "acceptable as prime minister," or "acceptable with reservations" or outright "not acceptable."
A total of 40 per cent considered Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar acceptable, a clear ten-point lead over Opposition Leader Dr Keith Rowley on 30 per cent.
When asked who they considered acceptable with reservations, Rowley closed the gap, suggesting he held a slight lead among potential voters who would give a candidate a second look.
A combined 57 per cent considered Persad-Bissessar acceptable and acceptable with reservations, compared with 52 per cent for Rowley.
Respondents also favoured the Prime Minister when they were asked who was doing a better job–her as prime minister or Rowley as Opposition Leader–26 per cent strongly approve of her performance, compared to 16 per cent for Rowley.
When those who "somewhat approve" are added, the lead is 51 per cent to 47 per cent.
On the question of who would make the best prime minister, Persad-Bissessar leads Rowley 42 per cent to 33 per cent.
However, in a week in which polling coincided with virtual collapse of the Integrity Commission, the governing party registered in single digit (seven per cent) when voters were asked which party was best placed to solve corruption.
The PNM registered 36 per cent but perhaps as significantly exactly half the voters thought none of the parties up to the job of tackling corruption.
The PNM was also ahead of the UNC on crime (39 per cent to 31 per cent), significantly ahead on unemployment (29 per cent to 15 per cent), but significantly behind on (28 per cent to 10 per cent), though significantly, 58 per cent had no confidence in any of the parties.
In Moruga/Tableland, the pressing local issue was infrastructure, particularly the roads in the area. It was the chief concern, as voted by 63 per cent of respondents.
Unemployment was a concern of 48 per cent, with governance, rising prices and moral values in that order.
When asked what they consider to be the big national issues, crime topped the list with 92 per cent while corruption was a distant second on 52 per cent.
Other issues perceived by Moruga constituents to be big national issues were unemployment, health care and rising prices.