Trinidad and Tobago is expected to face above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall over the next three months, with the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS) forecasting a high probability of ten three-day hot spells and two five-day hot spells during October.
The TTMS is also urging the public to conserve water as there is a moderate 68 per cent chance of below-normal rainfall totals and fewer wet days from October to December.
In its October to December 2026 climate outlook issued yesterday, the TTMS said both daytime and nighttime temperatures are expected to be above average across Trinidad and Tobago.
It said there is a 75 per cent probability of ten three-day hot spells and two five-day hot spells occurring during October.
The heat season generally ends at the end of October, although warm temperatures may continue into the first week of November.
Climatologically, September and October are two of the warmest months of the heat season.
Meanwhile, the TTMS said rainfall totals during the October to December period are most likely to range between 207 and 571 millimetres in Trinidad and between 70 and 442 millimetres in Tobago.
The probability of rainfall totals falling within the lowest 10 per cent of the climatic normal is low to moderate in Trinidad, at between 18 and 52 per cent, and moderate in Tobago, at between 32 and 47 per cent.
The TTMS said the reduced rainfall could negatively affect surface water availability, despite rainy-season conditions normally contributing to increased surface and groundwater recharge and stream flows.
It is therefore advising people to conserve water and prepare for drier-than-normal conditions, which could increase the need to collect and store water in tanks and other containers.
However, the TTMS warned that improperly secured water containers could create breeding sites for mosquitoes.
The reduced number of rainy days is also expected to decrease the chances of bush, forest and landfill fires during the period.
Flooding potential is forecast to be low to moderate in Trinidad and low in Tobago.
The TTMS said the climate outlook provides possible temperature and rainfall conditions over the next three to six months and forms part of a suite of early warning climate forecasts intended to assist contingency planners.
It cautioned that the outlook should not be used in isolation, but alongside daily weather forecasts and shorter-range forecasts and warnings issued by the service.
