rishard.khan@guardian.co.tt
Citizens must brace themselves for a hot 2019 as this year’s dry season is forecasted to be a harsh one with below average rainfall. The T&T Meteorological Office, therefore, is advising citizens to be dry season-ready, have a water plan, and have a heat plan.
Meteorologist Gary Benjamin, of the T&T Met Office, said in an interview yesterday the country is expected to enter El Niño conditions.
El Niño is the term used to describe the warming of seas surface temperatures, which occurs every few years and typically is concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific.
The opposite, La Niña, sees episodes of cooler-than-normal sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific.
A Met Office release said, “Current observations and climate model forecasts suggest El Niño is expected to form by the end of 2018 and continue into February (90% chance) and through March to May (60% chance)”
The Met Office said citizens should take measures to lessen impacts from the drier than usual conditions such as stocking up on water and emergency supplies for three to seven days and continue preparations— especially for persons at risk such as persons with heat-sensitive ailments.
During this time, it is expected to have a reduction in groundwater recharge, surface water flow and availability, and faster depletion of large reservoirs. They, however, warned that while the drier than average conditions can increase the need to collect and store water in containers, it could also increase the breeding areas for mosquitoes.
The drier and hotter conditions are also expected to increase the potential for landfill, bush and forest fires later in the season and would result in reduced air quality during any of the fires.
The Met Office forecasts that the period January to March is likely to be drier than usual with high chances for below normal rainfall and enhanced dryness during February and March. During this period, the country is expected to experience prolonged dry spells. They said there is a 60 to 70 per cent chance that on at least three occasions, there will be second consecutive days with no measurable rainfall.
January to May is forecasted to have a low to medium chance of being one of the lowest rainfall producing dry seasons with the chance for drought, drought-like conditions or recurrent dry spells being increased for February to March.
Most areas are likely to be drier than usual with a few areas remaining normal. This means some areas are expected to receive below 75 per cent of their usual rainfall while some areas are expected to receive between 75 and 125 per cent of their usual rainfall.
North-eastern Trinidad and Tobago are expected to receive the most rainfall respectively. Areas near Sangre Grande, Valencia, North Oropouche and environs are likely to receive the largest rainfall accumulated totals close to 670 millimetres (mm) while areas in north-west and south-west Trinidad and south-west Tobago are likely to receive the least rainfall totals, close to 200 mm.
Temperatures during both the day and night are expected to be warmer than average. It is forecasted that there is a 60 per cent chance daytime temperatures would exceed usual maximum temperatures and a 70 per cent chance for night temperatures to do the same.
The Met Office expects a higher number of hot days from late February to May and temperatures exceeding 34 degrees Celsius in Trinidad and 32 degrees Celsius in Tobago.
Few nights are likely to have minimum temperatures cooled below 22 degrees Celsius on cloud-free nights.
Over the years, the Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA) has been faced with a variety of issues, hindering them from providing adequate water supply to citizens, especially during the dry season and even during the rainy season as seen during recent weeks.
