More than a week af­ter it be­gan rum­bling, the Pi­paro mud vol­cano has gone silent.

How­ev­er, the dis­qui­et has not eased the fears of res­i­dents who re­main ready to evac­u­ate in the event of an erup­tion. The Emer­gency Evac­u­a­tion map has been shared out to res­i­dents and the plan re­mains that those who live to the west of the vol­cano will ex­it the dis­as­ter zone us­ing Pi­paro Road, to­wards Guaracara Junc­tion and then to the Rivers­dale Pres­by­ter­ian Pri­ma­ry School. Those to the east of the vol­cano will pro­ceed out of Pi­paro Road to Stone Road and then to Pi­paro Com­mu­ni­ty Cen­tre.

Res­i­dent Fi­del Solomon said the si­lence of the vol­cano was un­nerv­ing.

“Ab­solute­ly noth­ing is go­ing on and that is the scary part. I am speak­ing with the Vic­tim Sup­port Unit now. Many of my neigh­bours are just anx­ious­ly wait­ing. We are pet­ri­fied and we are just pray­ing,” he said.

The Solomons still have not evac­u­at­ed.

“We have nowhere to go and we can­not stay in the cen­tre. There are no fa­cil­i­ties there to show­er. Last night some­one called us from the Min­istry of Hous­ing and said tem­po­rary hous­ing will be pro­vid­ed. They sup­posed to get back to me,” Solomon said.

Chair­man of the Princes Town Re­gion­al Cor­po­ra­tion Gowrie Roop­nar­ine said since Thurs­day the vol­cano has stopped mak­ing nois­es but he said this has not re­duced the anx­i­ety which has set­tled over the com­mu­ni­ty since last Sat­ur­day. So why has the vol­cano gone silent?

CNC3’s weath­er an­chor and Geo­physi­cist Kalain Ho­sein ex­plains.

Why did the vol­cano rum­ble but did not blow?

From deep in the earth, hy­dro­car­bons, most­ly gas but some­times oil, and wa­ter move along a fault in­to lay­ers of the earth that are at a low­er pres­sure and low­er den­si­ty. This slur­ry of mud, wa­ter, and gas moves in­to shal­low lay­ers, build­ing up pres­sure in these sands. On the sur­face, some of this pres­sure is re­leased re­sult­ing in small mud vol­cano cones, vents and mud pools. This is the first stage.

What hap­pens next?

As time pro­gress­es, gen­er­al­ly on the or­der of 20 to 30 years in Trinidad, this pres­sure builds up, caus­ing bulging of the ground and frac­tures or faults to de­vel­op on the sur­face. We may see ad­di­tion­al cones de­vel­op­ing around the perime­ter of the mud vol­cano, as well as gas and mud es­cap­ing through these cracks. This is stage two.

At stage three, we have the first-ever large, vi­o­lent erup­tion of the mud vol­cano. As the mud col­laps­es and spreads out lat­er­al­ly across the ground, we see these white, sandy rings, as seen in the Dev­il’s Wood­yard erup­tion ear­ly in 2018. This was al­so the case in the 1997 erup­tion of Pi­paro. As the pres­sure is re­leased be­low the ground, we may even see the ground sub­side or sink in ar­eas near the vol­cano.

This new mud at the sur­face seals the pre­vi­ous vents and restarts a new cy­cle of pres­sure build-up be­low the ground, lead­ing to sub­se­quent erup­tions.

Is the erup­tion im­mi­nent?

When pres­sure builds up over 20 to 30 years we see the frac­tur­ing oc­cur­ring again around the vol­cano as the ground swells. Those small­er cones and mud pools on the pe­riph­ery of the vol­cano al­so de­vel­op as the next erup­tion be­comes im­mi­nent. This is where we are at to­day.

How long did it take for the vol­cano to blow in 1997?

 In 1997, it took three weeks af­ter we saw the first signs of an im­mi­nent erup­tion, as we had seen over the last sev­er­al days be­fore the dis­as­trous event oc­curred. Now, this doesn’t mean that the ex­pect­ed vi­o­lent erup­tion is go­ing to oc­cur in three weeks, but it gives us the idea that one is com­ing and those liv­ing in the area need to have that to-go bag ready and be aware of your evac­u­a­tion route. See Page A18