As political parties start to gear up for Local Government Elections (LGE) on August 14, political analyst Derek Ramsamooj says it is a decisive one as it is a forerunner for the next general election.
Ramsamooj, who has conducted election polling throughout the Caribbean as well as in T&T, returned to Trinidad late last year after being imprisoned in Suriname from early October 2020 to mid-December 2020 where he suffered severe illness. He was prohibited from leaving that country. Ramsamooj is now legally challenging the action of the State of Suriname against him.
The pollster believes the fundamental issue for LGE is governance—whether or not people are happy with the governance at the community level.
In a Q&A with Guardian’s Lead Editor Investigations, ASHA JAVEED, last week at his Maraval-based office, Ramsamooj said it was too early to predict the outcome of the LGE as the candidates have not begun their campaign just yet. In his view, the type of campaign they engage in will either attract or deter voters to the polls.
But he insisted that in this LGE, both leaders are battling for political survival.
Q: Do you think the three-month time frame is too short for this campaign?
A: I think the selection of a three-month period was done strategically. It’s going to be a forerunner for the general election.
Do you think people will vote along issues or party lines?
Well, if you wish to see a political change in the country, you have to increase the voter turnout. Local Government Elections are between 35 and 40 per cent, depending on which geographic area we’re looking at. However, you probably need to inspire a 50 per cent voter turnout, to achieve the winnability of your candidate
Why, traditionally, hasn’t there been a large turnout for Local Government Elections?
We’re more focused on the general election. Most of us do not believe local government is of any significance to improving the quality of life.
Do you think there will be a large voter turnout this year?
The question of why I should vote is one of the challenges our leaders will face with the younger generation, the swing voters or the default voters. That is going to be a political challenge in the coming weeks. We should expect more and more scandals to emerge to suppress people voting a particular way or to perhaps start questioning their morality and their ethics and whether or not I agree with party A or party B. The other element is motivation. And because we’re looking at the next general election we cannot afford to have any slippage. So, the UNC cannot afford to slip in the regional corporation of Sangre Grande. The PNM cannot afford to have slippage with respect to San Fernando. If there’s any slippage by either party that can set a tone or motivate people to consider a particular type of voting in the next general election. So let’s not look at the local government in a vacuum.
But do you think, with the country’s present challenges, the public is agitated enough to come out in numbers?
This election has the potential to become a referendum on the leadership of Dr Keith Rowley as Prime Minister, or whether or not people trust a political alternative led by Kamla Persad-Bissessar. And if you look at the community levels when you begin to talk about issues such as crime, infrastructure–whether it’s roads, whether it’s water, whether it’s drainage–those are the issues that could help determine how we move forward.
What do you think the LGE will come down to in the final analysis?
It’s going to come down to leadership. Who would the average voter trust to manage the affairs of this country? We are in a post-COVID world, so who do they expect to manage the crises that face our country? Our country faces economic crises, such as the cost of living. Who do you believe will give you more efficient value for money? If you have the coalition of all the opposition parties come together, you have the probability of a political landslide. If however, the politics remain as is, it is going to be a marginal race where the focus will perhaps be on three geographic spaces–the San Fernando Corporation, Siparia and Sangre Grande. So it’s going to be fairly narrow, and it’s only one or two of those seats in those areas that will determine the outcome.
You spoke about a coalition. Do you think there will be political accommodation by any of the parties to include the smaller parties to ensure victory?
For Kamla Persad-Bissessar and the UNC to secure a political victory in Local Government Elections, she must have some sort of political accommodation with other political stakeholders. The PNM has shown historically, the ability to enter different political spaces. They are the only party who have been able to put candidates in every electoral district at the general and the local elections. The UNC has failed to become a party with a national appeal, not just in Trinidad but in Tobago.
Derek Ramsamooj
Shirley Bahadur
What do you think are the issues that will feature highly in the LGE?
Let’s look at the national issues and then the community issues. The national issues will be that of trust–which leader you trust most, and which leader will have the widest possible appeal to the swing voters, the undecided voters and the younger generation voters, the Gen Z voters. Those are the ones that will make the difference. Now with the local government reform, it means that perhaps the calibre of candidates has to be revised at the local government since they will have more political responsibility, as there will be more money coming their way and since we have public procurement legislation. You may need a much more sophisticated type of candidate. On local issues now, it will be which candidate do I have connectivity with? You have the party, you have the leader and maybe the balancing power is the calibre of the candidate, and its connectivity to the geographic space in which to represent.
How important is property tax to the LGE?
The issue is whether people trust the manoeuvring of property tax for the benefit of the community. And it’s not yet clear whether or not that’s going to go to the consolidated fund, or if it’s going to the coffers of the regional authorities. Which brings us to local government reform. It is deeply disappointing that we have not yet, after so many decades of activities of local government reform by different administrations, we have not yet seen fit to basically find a way to embed Local Government Elections within our constitutional framework. There is an urgent need for our Constitution to evolve to the new political needs of society.
How will the issue of crime feature in the political campaigns for LGE?
Crime is a disease that confronts our society. And we will see in the coming weeks if there is political accommodation between the UNC and other political actors or aspirants.
What role will environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues feature in LGE?
The electorate has changed, the younger generation, Gen Z, is going to bring new perspectives. Also, your messaging system is going to change, nobody’s going to give you 30 seconds of their life to listen to a political message. So the use of tools such as Instagram becomes a major component above and beyond Facebook campaigning. This brings us to what we call the ESGs.
With the local government reform, ESG can become a major factor at the local government level. Why?
The E in it deals with the environment–we have issues regarding flooding, housing development, and new roadways being paved. The environment becomes a major issue because every major protest right now deals with the environment.
With respect to the S, which is society–this society is arguing amongst itself for inclusion or exclusion, whether based on geographic dimensions, whether it's related to ethnicity or traditional type of behaviour, or whether it's education. Governance. Our country has had a problem with governance. We see that at the national level through successive governments, we see it in the Tobago element with the recent fiascos happening, and we also see it now at the community level, at the municipal level. One of the suggestions for governance is to operate the way Parliament conducts itself via the media. We also need to see how our councillors conduct their political business by putting their conversations in the public space. So that is why this opportunity for local government reform can now introduce ESGs in the governance structure of how resources are allocated.
What type of campaigns can the country expect?
Both political leaders are fighting for their political survival. If Kamla Persad-Bissessar loses the San Fernando Corporation, then there are going to be questions asked about her capacity to lead the country forward. If Dr Rowley cannot curtail a possible political accommodation, and if the PNM were to be savaged in the elections, because people are angry sufficiently, then they're also going to be questions on his leadership, and his ability to lead the PNM.