SOURCE: THE WEATH­ER CHAN­NEL

At a Glance

- Trop­i­cal Storm Gon­za­lo has formed in the At­lantic be­tween Africa and the Less­er An­tilles.

- It is fore­cast to strength­en in the next few days east of the Wind­ward Is­lands.

- It could be­come a hur­ri­cane be­fore reach­ing the Wind­ward Is­lands this week­end.

- Its in­ten­si­ty fore­cast, how­ev­er, is very un­cer­tain.

- Gon­za­lo is the ear­li­est sev­enth named storm to form in the At­lantic.

Trop­i­cal Storm Gon­za­lo has formed in the At­lantic Ocean be­tween Africa and the Less­er An­tilles and could im­pact parts of the Wind­ward Is­lands this week­end.

This sys­tem is lo­cat­ed well over 1,000 miles east of the south­ern Wind­ward Is­lands, mov­ing west.

Gon­za­lo be­came the ear­li­est sev­enth named trop­i­cal storm on record to form in the At­lantic basin, ac­cord­ing to Phil Klotzbach, a trop­i­cal sci­en­tist at Col­orado State Uni­ver­si­ty. The pre­vi­ous record was held by Trop­i­cal Storm Gert, which de­vel­oped on Ju­ly 24, 2005.

Gon­za­lo's tiny size and the en­vi­ron­ment around it pose a ma­jor fore­cast chal­lenge for its fu­ture in­ten­si­ty.

Dry air is cur­rent­ly plen­ti­ful to the west and north of Gon­za­lo, which is one fac­tor that can weak­en and dis­rupt trop­i­cal cy­clones.

While shear­ing winds are cur­rent­ly not near Gon­za­lo, it may en­counter some mod­est wind shear as it nears the Wind­ward Is­lands this week­end.

These fac­tors would ar­gue for a weak­en­ing of Gon­za­lo by the time it nears the Wind­ward Is­lands Sat­ur­day.

How­ev­er, there is an am­ple sup­ply of warm, deep ocean wa­ter ahead of Gon­za­lo, and they're gen­er­al­ly warmer than av­er­age for this time of year.

Fur­ther­more, Gon­za­lo is a tiny trop­i­cal storm. Small trop­i­cal storms like this can in­ten­si­fy quick­ly in the right con­di­tions, but they can al­so suc­cumb to un­fa­vor­able con­di­tions more quick­ly than a larg­er storm. In oth­er words, they can strength­en and weak­en much more and at a faster rate than ex­pect­ed.

So, the range of out­comes for the in­ten­si­ty fore­cast is large, any­where from this storm re­main­ing weak or dis­si­pat­ing east of the Wind­ward Is­lands, to a pos­si­ble hur­ri­cane.

For­tu­nate­ly, the track fore­cast is a bit more straight­for­ward. We ex­pect a gen­er­al west-north­west track in­to the Wind­ward Is­lands by Sat­ur­day, then in­to the east­ern Caribbean Sea by Sun­day.

In­ter­ests in the Less­er An­tilles, in­clud­ing ar­eas as far south as Trinidad and To­ba­go, even the north­ern coast of Venezuela, should mon­i­tor the progress of this Gon­za­lo close­ly.

First of the Main De­vel­op­ment Re­gion

Gon­za­lo is the first trop­i­cal storm this sea­son to form in the so-called "main de­vel­op­ment re­gion" of the At­lantic Ocean be­tween Africa and the Less­er An­tilles.

It's a sign we're head­ed to­ward the prime months of the hur­ri­cane sea­son, when trop­i­cal storms and hur­ri­canes can form not just in the Gulf of Mex­i­co, off the South­east coast or west­ern Caribbean Sea, but al­so in this main de­vel­op­ment re­gion and take long tracks through the At­lantic Basin. (THE WEATH­ER CHAN­NEL)