Freelance Contributor
As Venezuela begins to reopen its energy industry to foreign investment, economist and political analyst Dr Vanus James says T&T’s success in reopening discussions with Venezuela over the Dragon gas field and other energy negotiations will depend on whatever the US government allows it.
On Thursday, Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez revealed that Venezuela had begun to export its first gas, but did not give details.
James yesterday told Guardian Media the US Government will put its interests before those of T&T.
“What happens with Dragon depends on whether and how the Americans and maybe the International Monetary Fund (IMF) think about T&T’s economic circumstances and needs. And even if you get the agreement to pursue the cross-border supplies and Dragon, it will be on American terms, which generally won’t favour T&T in an ‘America First’ world order. Moreover, the energy sector will need a few years to recover to capacity operations,” James said.
He drew a parallel between what is happening now with T&T’s colonial era of dependence and underdevelopment.
“Centuries of sugar and colonialism should have taught you that you should be very careful with imperial preference,” he said.
At the same time, James reminded that whatever happens with the Dragon gas deal, there will be no quick fix for T&T’s economic woes.
“Whatever is done will not help in this financial year. The import cover is now below three months, so FX shortages loom large, and the oil price targets are well above current levels, so the economy will be relatively depressed this year. You will miss your 2025/2026 budget revenue targets and expenditure commitments will be severely stressed. To make any progress this fiscal year, you will need to borrow much more than US$1 billion.”
Former honorary senior fellow of the Institute of International Relations at the University of the West Indies, Dr Anthony Gonzales, also said geopolitically, the circumstances are now more in T&T’s favour in settling a gas contract with Venezuela.
“My sense is that Venezuela needs to export to promote growth, boost the economy and stop migration. Exporting surplus costs to T&T should be priority, as the work has already been done and the market is there. Geopolitically, I would think that the situation is also more favourable on both sides for licences to be granted.”
Less than a month after the US military ousted Nicolás Maduro as president, Venezuelan lawmakers have approved a law change that will make it easier for foreign companies to participate in the country’s oil industry, in a move by Caracas to meet the demands of US President Donald Trump.
The reform will open up the Venezuelan oil industry, which is present currently largely controlled by state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), and allow foreign companies to manage oilfields at their own risk and cost.
At the same time, the US Department of Treasury officially began to ease punishing economic sanctions on Venezuelan oil, which were imposed by the first Trump administration, and expanded the ability of US energy companies to operate in the South American nation.
On Thursday, President Trump also said he instructed his Transportation Secretary, Sean Duffy, and US military leaders to take steps to open the airspace for travel by the end of the day.
