The last report by the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) on the review of constituency boundaries pursuant to section 72 of the Constitution was dated March 14, 2019. As a consequence, in the scheme of what is required for such reports to be made, the Constitution is very clear in section 72(2) that these reports “shall be submitted by the commission not less than two nor more than five years from the date of the submission of its last report.”
Those reports are to be submitted to the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the House of Representatives. So the magic question to be asked is whether the EBC has submitted such a report to the Prime Minister and the Speaker as required by law at some time up to and including March 14 instant.
Once the report becomes available, the Government will usually lay the report in Parliament and an Order will be made to give effect to the new boundaries. According to section 72(3) of the Constitution:
“3. As soon as may be after the commission has submitted a report under subsection (1)(a) the minister designated by the Prime Minister for this purpose (in this section called “the Minister”) shall lay before the House of Representatives for its approval the draft of an Order by the President for giving effect, whether with or without modifications, to the recommendations contained in the report, and that draft may make provision for any matters which appear to the minister to be incidental to or consequential upon the other provisions of the draft.”
At the time of writing, it is not known whether the EBC has submitted its report as the five-year anniversary of the last report would have passed last Thursday. The elapse of time between the delivery of the report to the Prime Minister and the Speaker and when the report is actually laid in Parliament may vary.
However, an examination of the last report in 2019 showed that the constituency with the lowest number of registered voters in Trinidad, at the time of publishing the report, was Port-of-Spain South with 23,530, while the highest was Toco/Sangre Grande with 31,599.
The Constitution mandates at section 70(2) the following provision:
“Not less than two such constituencies shall be in the Island of Tobago.”
Regardless of the formula used by the EBC to determine the allocation of polling divisions to constituencies, there will always be separate numbers for Tobago because of the specific provision that there must be two constituencies in Tobago. In 2019, the EBC report stated that there were 22,730 registered voters in Tobago East and 27,197 voters in Tobago West.
According to the Second Schedule of the Constitution, the following is stated in respect of the formula to be applied for the calculation of the boundaries of constituencies:
“1. These rules are the Delimitation of Constituencies Rules in accordance with which the constituencies of Trinidad and Tobago are to be delimited under section 72(1).
2. Subject to paragraph 3, the electorate shall so far as is practicable be equal in all constituencies.
3. The number of constituencies in Tobago shall not be less than two.
4. In Trinidad and in Tobago, respectively, the electorate in any constituency shall not be more than one hundred and ten per cent nor be less than ninety per cent of the total electorate of the island divided by the number of constituencies in that island.
5. Special attention shall be paid to the needs of sparsely populated areas which on account of size, isolation or inadequacy of communications cannot adequately be represented by a single member of Parliament.
6. Natural boundaries such as major highways and rivers shall be used wherever possible.
7. In this Schedule ‘Trinidad’ means the Island of Trinidad and its offshore islands, and ‘Tobago’ means the Island of Tobago and its offshore islands.”
Since its 2004 report, the EBC has not recommended any increase in the number of constituencies. Instead, it has only recommended adjustments in the boundaries of constituencies by moving around polling divisions.
The effect of such moves can have an impact on the overall outcome of any general election based on an analysis of previous elections and their results when calculated against the shift of polling divisions to their new constituencies and away from the previous constituencies where they were housed.
As of last Thursday, the EBC ought to have submitted its report by law. It would be interesting to see what changes they have recommended for the next general election. The fact that a report is due may explain why the Prime Minister is sounding like he is in election mode.