Lay all first and second favourites at the Cheltenham Festival meeting next week on betting exchanges and you will be running in tandem with the modus operandi of established on-course bookmakers paying thousands to stand on pitches.
They need to win at such major 'Festival' fixtures because this is the biggie with millions of 'mugs' speculating, guessing, more than at any other fixture; turnover is colossal, mind-boggling!
Ruby Walsh is 1/2 favourite to be 'leading jockey' but one fall can put him out of action and the punter's money on the floor; he's 36, battered, shattered but inspired by thoughts of riding so many good horses; I'll lay him!
For the aforementioned reason it's crazy to back jockeys unless the odds represent super-value; Tony McCoy, for instance, could be worth a throwaway 'tenner' at good odds because he's assembling an impressive inventory with so many owners/trainers wanting to share in his impending retirement. Good thinking.
Obviously the 'Championship' races are most attractive and on the opening day an ultra-competitive Champion Hurdle is eagerly-anticipated but, at this stage, none appeals as value whereas we have a real, good-priced 'special' in the opening 'Supreme' which you can read about, next Tuesday!
During the four days there will be few wagers; a patient approach is advised and you can bet I'll be gunning for another big-priced nap in the Gold Cup, Friday, to back up that 25/1 'beaut' Lord Windermere last year.
The 'Lord' was 50/1 during morning lists, surely my nap in the Racing Post Naps Table wasn't influencing; it'll be bigger this year and it aint Lord Windermere!
Ground conditions are key, currently the surfaces at most venues are desperate but I've a strong feeling we'll all be caught out again next week when that race-time for the opening 'Supreme' is boomed out over Prestbury Park, which drains like a sponge!
Newcastle is one of three six-race programmes today; 'good to soft' might be a bit misleading but whatever the surface Gilnockie should finally get off the mark in the Novices' Hurdle over two miles.
All races on Southwell fibresand are handicaps and Electric Qatar is fancied to supplement recent course gains in the 'aged' sprint over five furlongs, one of the best and most fair.
Selections
10.10 Lexington Bay
10.50 Ha'penny Woods
12.10 Electric Qatar