What stood out most about Finance Minister Colm Imbert’s Budget presentation yesterday was its length — more than five hours, most of it spent defending the Government’s economic policies.
In his tenth budget, which he had warned in advance would be lengthy, Minister Imbert went into some detail on efforts he said are ongoing to achieve “a resilient budget that can withstand external shocks.”
There were numerous references to the strain placed on the country’s resources during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, a theme continued from Mr Imbert’s past two budgets.
The presentation was prefaced by the usual reminders about geo-political tensions and supply chain disruptions, particularly the shipping constraints that are affecting the cost of sea freight.
These challenging global scenarios were used by the minister to reinforce his claims of prudent fiscal management — another recurring theme from budgets past — and to highlight the growth that has been taking place.
With an election due next year, there was a ramping up of the positive economic news, including three consecutive years of growth, a drop in the inflation rate and the positive performance in the non-energy sector.
It helped that a few months earlier, in its June 2024 report on the T&T economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had forecast a gradual and sustained recovery.
There were no obvious belt-tightening measures. The roll-out of property tax is ongoing and Minister Imbert did not provide any definitive word on the expected hike in electricity rates.
However, there were plenty of budget goodies for public sector workers, including an increase in their minimum wage from $20.50 to $22.50 an hour for MTS, URP and Cepep workers. There was also the offer of a five per cent wage increase for 2020-2022 and backpay by year-end if new agreements are met.
The minister also attempted to head off the usual complaints from the Tobago House of Assembly (THA) by pointing out that the island’s total allocation of $2.599 billion is an increase over 2024, as well as a 4.35 per cent slice of the national budget. In education, which gets one of the largest allocations, the proposed introduction of e-textbooks should offer some measure of financial relief to families struggling with the cost of school supplies.
National security, a sore point given the country’s worsening crime situation, was addressed with promises of several initiatives to boost border security, including the acquisition of aircraft, offshore patrol vessels, drones and 2,000 new vehicles for the T&T Police Service (TTPS).
With these and many of the other measures in the $59.7 billion fiscal package, the devil is likely to be in the details.
Modest economic growth did not mitigate the effects of low oil and gas prices and declining production in the energy sector, so once again the country is saddled with a budget deficit of $5.5 billion. Mr Imbert was quick to point out it is the norm rather than the exception, as deficit budgets were also delivered during the UNC’s terms in office.
Mr Imbert took time to put a great deal of positive spin on his presentation, but still had to exercise some restraint with the measures he announced.
In terms of the fiscal year ahead, there are still many unknowns. The picture should become clearer when the budget debate begins on Friday.