Although it seemed certain on the surface that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would win a clear majority in the Indian election, this has turned out not to be the case. Instead, he may scrape through the minimum number of seats required to form a government and will need help to pass important legislation. It will be a challenge for him to govern a complex and divided country, with an assertive, and now, more confident opposition.
In South Africa, Nelson Mandela’s, party, the African National Congress, lost enough support after three decades of one-party rule, to make it inevitable that a coalition will have to be formed, except that demands on the former ruling party include the exit of the former president Cyril Ramaphosa as president of the country. We will have to wait to see what emerges as government.
In Mexico, they have elected a woman, Claudia Sheinbaum, as prime minister from the ruling party. She has won a strong victory. How well she will be able to govern is left to be seen. This will be determined not only by her own competence or political skills, but also by the extent to which drug cartel power asserts itself as a disruptive force to governance, economy, society and political order
In El Salvador, Nayib Bukele was reelected by an overwhelming majority because he brought crime under control. That was his governance achievement and also, his campaign position.
In Haiti, no elections, but a governing council agreed on a prime minister for two years, during which time it is hoped the country will be stabilised to facilitate a presidential election.
It is important to note that Hindu nationalism was not enough and that it struck a divisive chord in India.
While India had successfully landed on the moon, had become the most populous country in the world, and the third largest economy in the world, farmers who feed the nation felt marginalised. While demand for luxury goods was growing among those who could afford, the inequality gap was widening and more people were struggling to make ends meet. Young people cannot find jobs.
In South Africa, ethnic loyalty seems to have run its course for the ANC, and young people who never experienced apartheid were more concerned about the fact that they never had a job, and could not get one. Some older people thinking about the decades of ANC rule, could not come to terms with the fact that so little had changed for the better and so much had gotten worse.
One may reasonably conclude that in both India and South Africa, the electorate rationally chose on the basis of some combination of two questions—How is my interest being served? and How is the national interest being served right now?
In Haiti, Mexico and El Salvador, all countries in our hemisphere, we have some dangerous models developing.
Criminal gangs actually took control of Haiti and forced an acting prime minister to step down and declared that they wanted to have a say on who would govern Haiti. These gangs are a real factor and have to be reckoned with. It is quieter now but law and order has not been restored. Haiti can be an exploding powder keg at any time.
In Mexico, the big story is Mexico’s first female president. But the real story is that 20 political candidates were executed by drug cartels and gangsters before election because these power brokers felt those 20 candidates to be uncooperative. So, one might ask, what kind of politician wins an election in Mexico?
In El Salvador, Bukele is a maverick. He built jails, rounded up criminals and criminal suspects and locked them up. He cleaned up streets and neighbourhoods. Suburbs became safe, public places became pleasant, children could play in the streets. Human rights did not feature.
Will Trinidad and Tobago citizens learn anything from the Indian and South African electorate? And, which model of the three countries in the western hemisphere will our government and opposition and other political parties choose? And which of the choices will citizens vote for?
Tough rhetoric is for political entertainment in Trinidad and Tobago. Bukele-type action seldom follows.
But the ground may be shifting. When kidnapping suspects were killed in the forest the other day, one could sense the silent approval. And Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley wants police and citizens to align against gangs. And the Opposition wants police to attack with full force.
Bye and bye ... we will see.