While the Health Ministry continues to monitor the new COVID variant which has not yet reached local shores, but has been detected in countries visited by locals, economist Dr Vaalmikki Arjoon is warning there can be an economic fallout should the virus reach T&T.
Local businesses are also concerned of their baselines being corroded once again especially for smaller entities.
The strain, named NB181, first appeared on January 21, 2025 and by late April 2025 it was accounting for around 10.7 per cent of all global infections—up from just 2.5 per cent four weeks previously, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) stated.
“If there is a local wave, it may disrupt private sector activities, even if there isn’t a lockdown. Worker absenteeism due to infections will hamper productivity, slow operations and dent revenues across manufacturing, retail, and the services sectors, further complicating our economic recovery,” Arjoon told the Sunday Business Guardian.
He also noted that if absenteeism rises to even half of its pandemic peak, it could shave roughly 0.3 per cent off 2025 real-GDP growth, largely through lost shifts in manufacturing and energy plants.
Depending on how severely the virus affects other countries, Arjoon warned that T&T could run the risk of becoming more vulnerable to supply chain delays if foreign suppliers are deeply affected, causing bottlenecks in the local manufacturing sector and disrupting production schedules, affecting their abilities to meet orders on time and lowering their revenues, including export sales and foreign exchange earnings.
Arjoon further stated that if there is a wave of the new infection locally, this risks further compromising the country’s already fragile macro-fiscal and growth position.
Additionally, he noted a wave in the US and Europe could also lower tourist arrivals in the region, which could cause export revenues for local food processors to take a hit, as they frequently supply food items to many regional hotel resorts and restaurants, putting pressure on our forex earnings.
“Consumer spending can also fall if persons choose to stay home and avoid the risk of infection, lowering sales revenues for many retailers and those in the services sectors. Lower sales and profits in the private sector translate into weaker VAT and corporate tax revenues for the government, exacerbating the already significant fiscal shortfall and potentially forcing re-allocations away from other budgetary commitments to cover urgent health-care costs like vaccines, antivirals, ICU capacity and consumables, health workers and test kits. Alternatively, these costs could be covered through IDB/CAF contingent credit lines,” Arjoon further explained.
Ultimately, he added, the combination of reduced output, diminished consumer demand and strained public finances would slow the nascent economic rebound and heighten downside risks to growth and fiscal stability.
A potential economic fallout, Arjoon suggested, requires financial relief to be provided by the state, adding that given the fiscal crunch, this should be targeted to entities in sectors that most affected such as tourism, hospitality and services with a significant and demonstrable drop in sales (at least 40 per cent), and households with an income level below a particular threshold, rather than an economy-wide payroll subsidy.
Unfocussed payroll support enlarges the overall deficit and could delay fiscal consolidation, contributing to rating-agency concerns about debt trajectories, Arjoon further warned.
Arjoon recommended that this new wave of infections globally highlighted the urgent need for the country to develop some self-sufficiency in manufacturing essential pharmaceuticals and medical supplies.
“We depend entirely on foreign suppliers for medicines, vaccines, and diagnostics, leaving us exposed to global shortages and shipping delays. Our COVID experience demonstrated the severe risks of import reliance for critical medications.
“Establishing a local biotechnology and pharmaceutical manufacturing centre would ensure timely access to vaccines, antivirals, and other essential drugs, shielding us from potential international supply disruptions.
“This facility would also create high-skill jobs, foster technology transfer, and strengthen our overall health security. It will also allow us to export pharmaceuticals and medical supplies to the region, earning added forex and boosting the diversification thrust,” he added.
However, he said given T&T’s challenging lessons from the 2020 to 2022 pandemic, local authorities might already be putting surveillance and contingency plans in place to contain any fallout should the virus arrive.
When the COVID-19 pandemic swept over T&T some three years ago, the services sector was among businesses which also took a hit.
This time, Dianne Joseph, president of the T&T Coalition of Services Industries is advising it would be prudent to heighten the level of monitoring and education for the population about any early action to shield from another potential crisis.
“The then pandemic would have caught many ‘off-guard’ as it was an experience that was new; the operational infrastructure not fully in place, technology non-existent in many cases and the hardship that was ahead could not be abated that easy. We all know the history. Many of our members and citizens were put out of employment, SMEs were very challenged to operate and experienced closure or a high level of reduction in business to the point of remaining without the capacity to employ anyone but themselves to survive...
“This will not only alert us but will guide us along a part of strategic preparedness to protect our families and businesses. Every step must be taken to ensure that we do not lose another 4,000 persons to a single virus,” she said.
President of the Chaguanas Chamber of Commerce Baldath Maharaj also agreed that greater preparation is needed.
He noted the business community has shown a level of resilience since the last pandemic, with some investing in digital tools, hybrid models and enhanced safety protocols. However, Maharaj cautioned that any resurgence of a similar virus could affect key sectors like retail, hospitality and transportation, especially as the country heads into peak periods for commerce and travel.
“We urge businesses to review their contingency plans, refresh internal health protocols, and stay alert to updates from the Ministry of Health. We will continue to advocate for a balanced approach that protects both lives and livelihoods.
“We have been here before and we are better prepared now. Our strength lies in our unity, our foresight and our willingness to act in the national interest,” he added.
Greater San Fernando Chamber of Commerce president Kiran Singh also echoed that T&T should not let its guard down or become complacent.
“Some of us travel quite frequently to North America in particular. Airborne diseases such as the new COVID-19 variants are mutating to evade the body’s immune system. Whether they are more deadly or not will only be known after the transmission of the disease...We learnt many emotionally painful lessons which must not be forgotten,” Singh said.
He suggested the government implement some sort of scanning system at all of the nation’s point of entry to reduce the risk of infection and also advised that sourcing updated vaccines may also be considered.
Singh added that business owners have been expressing concern about the potential negative consequences of the new variant, noting that the micro, small, and medium enterprises sector was still recovering for the shock of the last pandemic.
“That sector could potentially face rising costs with providing sanitation stations and monitors at their front doors. Employment would be reduced if opening hours are reduced for spread of infection. Confidence in consumer spending could drop leading to investors losing confidence.
“Fixed expenditures such as rent, utilities, mortgages and insurance crippled businesses in the past. These factors are a constant of business operation and we need to be wary of managing these expenses in a COVID-19 world,” he further advised.
Singh suggested stores which have large promotions and sales should exercise crowd control as well, should the new virus reach T&T.