The December 3 referendum in Venezuela on that country’s long-standing claim for what amounts to two-third of Caricom member state, Guyana, is an event of existential importance for T&T and Caricom.
Given the phrasing of the referendum questions (see sidebar) and the fact that the ownership of Essequibo is a 124-year-old grievance of the Venezuelan state, it is very likely the referendum will go in favour of the creation of a Venezuelan state in Essequibo.
In my view, there is little doubt that the non-binding, consultative referendum will result in a vast majority voting “yes” to the five questions asked. But what happens on December 4?
Will Venezuela immediately move to annex the Essequibo region, which will result in Guyana calling on its international partners to assist in the defence of its territorial integrity?
If Venezuela moves to annex Essequibo, it is likely to face military opposition from the US, which would be protecting the interests of ExxonMobil and Hess, the two major shareholders in the development of Guyana’s offshore oil riches, as well as fulfilling the mutual defence chapter of the Organisation of American States.
Speaking at a news conference on Sunday, Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali seemed to suggest that Guyana has the support of the US.
President Ali was asked whether that country would be seeking military support from the United States and its other strategic partners in countering any Venezuelan military aggression.
“With the work we are doing, we believe that Venezuela would not act in a reckless way.
“However, if they do act in a reckless way, we have already, as I said before, engaged our strategic partners, we have engaged the chief of staff and the senior command
“We are continuously engaged with partners across the region and, of course, extra regionally and we are assured that Guyana’s territorial integrity and sovereignty will not, will not see our development partners standing aside and allowing anyone to advantage of us.
“Outside of that, we are also sparing no effort in ensuring that we continue to enhance our capability because we have a responsibility to do so.”
Guyana also has the unwavering support, it would seem, of the 15-member states of Caricom, if one is to judge by this October 25 statement issued by the Caricom Secretariat, on behalf of the leaders of the Community.
“Caricom further notes that two of the questions approved to be posed in the Referendum, if answered in the affirmative, would authorise the government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to embark on the annexation of territory, which constitutes part of the Cooperative Republic of Guyana, and to create a state within Venezuela known as Guyana Essequibo.
“Caricom reaffirms that international law strictly prohibits the government of one State from unilaterally seizing, annexing or incorporating the territory of another state. An affirmative vote as aforesaid opens the door to the possible violation of this fundamental tenet of international law.”
And T&T, despite its future reliance on Venezuela’s Dragon natural gas field, is also standing behind Guyana.
Speaking at a news conference on Monday, Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley said: “We are confident that the governments of Venezuela and Guyana would know that Caricom’s position is that the region must be, and remain, a zone of peace and that is the best position for all of us.
“And secondly, we all know that even in the darkest hour, Trinidad and Tobago’s position was that if difficulties arise, the response ought to be dialogue, dialogue and dialogue.”
Of course, an arbitration in 1899 awarded Essequibo to Britain, which Venezuela has resented since then.
In a statement on September 22, 2023, Caricom said it noted “with grave concern” the contents of a communique emanating from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela regarding the announcement made by Guyana, about its intention to open bids for certain oil blocks in the waters adjacent to Guyana’s coast.
“Caricom views the stated intention of Venezuela to ‘apply all the necessary measures’ to prevent the operations licensed by Guyana in its waters, as a threat of the use of force contrary to international law.
“It is also not in keeping with the long-standing position of the Latin American and Caribbean countries that our Region must remain a Zone of Peace,” said Caricom.
The Caricom reference to Guyana’s “intention to open bids for certain oil blocks in the waters adjacent to Guyana’s coast,” pertains to the country’s expansion of its search for offshore oil and natural gas.
According to a Caribbean Media Corporation report on September 14, 2023, Guyana launched its first round of competitive offshore oil and gas licensing auction in December 2022 with an April 2023 deadline.
That auction was extended to June, July, and then to September 12, 2023, “as the administration moved to advance the sector’s regulatory framework to ensure accountability and transparency.”
On September 14, two days after the closure of the auction, Guyana’s vice president, Bharrat Jagdeo, announced that the country had received eight bids for 14 of the oil blocks.
The Venezuelan government objected to Guyana’s offshore bidding round on September 19, stating in a post on social media, according to a Reuters report: “Venezuela strongly rejects the illegal licensing round being carried out in Guyana as it intends to use maritime areas that are subject of delimitation between both countries.”
Venezuela argued that Guyana does not have sovereign rights over the areas, so any oil activity there must be done in agreement with Venezuela.
“These actions will not generate any type of rights to third parties participating in the process,” Venezuela added, according to the Reuters report.
Last month, Jagdeo announced that the ExxonMobil-led consortium and the France-headquartered TotalEnergies were among those that won bids in the South American nation’s inaugural competitive bid round.
Shallow water blocks have been awarded to a consortium of TotalEnergies, Qatar Energy and Petronas; the Nigeria-based International Group Investment Inc; and the American-owned Liberty Petroleum Corporation; ExxonMobil, Hess and CNOOC.
Deepwater blocks were awarded to Delcorp, a Guyanese-registered company made up of two Saudi Arabian companies Watad Energies and Communications Ltd and Arabian Drilling Company, and Sispro Inc, a company comprising Guyanese shareholders.
• Why did Venezuela wait until September 19, 2023—AFTER Guyana’s vice president, Bharrat Jagdeo, announced that eight offshore blocks were to be awarded—to state that it (Venezuela) “strongly rejects the illegal licensing round,” that its neighbour had launched in December?
• Is it a coincidence that the Venezuelan government set December 3, 2023, as the date of its referendum on the Essequibo region on October 20, three days after the October 17, 2023 signing of an agreement to pave the way for presidential elections next year, which are to be overseen by international observers?
• Is the escalation of Venezuela’s long-standing border dispute with Guyana, at this time, an attempt by the administration of President Nicolas Maduro to create a public, international distraction that would create a pretext to delay the holding of free and fair presidential elections?
• Or is the referendum simply an attempt to gain access to Essequibo’s offshore energy resources and its onshore gold and other minerals.