The Bar­ba­dos-based Caribbean Cli­mate Out­look Fo­rum (Cari­COF) said Fri­day that the El Niño-South­ern Os­cil­la­tion (EN­SO) neu­tral con­di­tions in the Pa­cif­ic, com­bined with un­usu­al­ly warm wa­ters around the Caribbean, could cre­ate a re­gion­al heat sea­son with the pos­si­bil­i­ty of heat­waves, grad­u­al­ly ramp­ing up, but un­like­ly to match 2023 and 2024.

EN­SO is a re­cur­ring cli­mate pat­tern in­volv­ing changes in the tem­per­a­ture of wa­ters in the cen­tral and east­ern trop­i­cal Pa­cif­ic Ocean.

In its lat­est Caribbean Cli­mate Out­looks, Cari­COF said in May, the oc­cur­rence of high evap­o­ra­tion rates, short dry spells and the pos­si­ble buildup of any on­go­ing drought in­creas­es heat and wild­fire po­ten­tial and that rain­fall in­ten­si­ty and show­er fre­quen­cy should rise in May in the Ba­hamas, Guianas and Greater An­tilles or June in Be­lize and the Less­er An­tilles.

Cari­COF said for the three-month pe­ri­od May to Ju­ly, the con­di­tions could re­sult in high to ex­treme­ly high po­ten­tial for flood­ing, flash floods, cas­cad­ing haz­ards and as­so­ci­at­ed im­pacts.

“Episodes of Sa­ha­ran dust in­tru­sion will like­ly be fre­quent; the more fre­quent, the more dry­ness and heat, and the more er­rat­ic the oc­cur­rence of se­vere weath­er—in­clud­ing in­tense trop­i­cal cy­clone ac­tiv­i­ty,” it added.

Cari­COF said that for the three-month pe­ri­od, the po­ten­tial for flood­ing, flash floods and cas­cad­ing im­pacts aris­ing from runoff dur­ing in­tense rain­fall events will be high, par­tic­u­lar­ly in moun­tain­ous ar­eas and in the Guianas.

It said wa­ter recharge rates in sur­face reser­voirs and rivers will like­ly rapid­ly ac­cel­er­ate, par­tic­u­lar­ly in the Guianas.

“Rise in wet day fre­quen­cy to in­creas­ing­ly dis­rupt out­door tourism ac­tiv­i­ties, make con­di­tions con­ducive to mois­ture- re­lat­ed pests, but damp­en wild­fire po­ten­tial,” it said.

Cari­COF said that as of April 1, mod­er­ate—or worse, short-term drought—has de­vel­oped in north­west­ern parts of The Ba­hamas, Cay­man Is­lands, Cen­tral Cu­ba, south­west Do­mini­can Re­pub­lic, Haiti, Sint Maarten.

Mean­while, long-term drought has de­vel­oped in north­ern Ba­hamas, south­west Be­lize, north­ern Do­mini­can Re­pub­lic, south­west Ja­maica, north­west Trinidad, St. Vin­cent and north­west Suri­name. —BRIDGETOWN, Bar­ba­dos (CMC)