Three political parties—PNM, PDP, and One Tobago Voice—and two independents—Ricardo Phillips and Nikocy Edwards—will be contesting the two Tobago seats in the 2020 Parliamentary Elections tomorrow. Contesting the Tobago East seat will be Ayanna Webster-Roy (PNM), Watson Duke (PDP) and (One Tobago Voice). Contesting Tobago West will be Shamfa Cudjoe (PNM), Tashia Burris (PDP), and the two independents. There will be seven candidates in all.
Which of them will win?
The elections are generating a lot of interest, even in these COVID-19 times when there are restraints on our movement and manners via social distancing and personal sanitation, which are constraining the ability of the parties, if not the independents, to hold large public meetings.
Perhaps the most interesting candidate is Watson Solomon Duke, the political leader of the Progressive Democratic Patriots (PDP). He rivets attention in multiple ways, three of which are:
• He has entered the contest with a criminal charge of sexual misconduct hanging over his head
• A lot of people find his personality classless and off-putting
• He has stated unambiguously that if his party wins even one of the seats he will lever it to win the highest prize of the office of Prime Minister.
But people are flocking to his meetings in droves, especially young people disaffected with the PNM, and he seems to have as many supporters as detractors, perhaps more. His PDP is practically the opposition of choice in Tobago, the One Tobago Voice hardly getting any traction from the potential electors, just as their constituent parties—Tobago Forwards and Platform of Truth—did not in previous elections. And, not unexpectedly, it also looks grim for the independents.
So Duke’s personality is both an asset and a liability. A group of seven venerable politicians from the NAR’s heyday, including former THA Chairman Dr Jefferson Davidson and former Minister and Tobago East parliamentarian, has recently endorsed him, which should provide a fillip to his chances of election. And development economist Dr Vanus James has joined the PDP platform to particularly decry THA victimisation in these grim COVID-19 times and, more generally, to urge voters to vote the PNM out for non-delivery on several promises, most notably on greater autonomy for Tobago, expansion of the Tobago economy, and reduction of economic dependence on Trinidad.
But PM Rowley is preoccupied with Duke’s personality and ethical sense, wants to have nothing to do with him, especially if he wins, and, indeed, thinks he should have done the honourable thing and not offered himself for parliamentary service.
The PNM, for its part, continues to enjoy the support of its traditional base, which has incorporated some of the DAC/NAR/Open Book/TOP base, and, pointing to several development initiatives in the island, like the commissioning of the South-West Tobago Wastewater project and the Roxborough Fire Station, it sells itself as the only responsible party and as the party that can best carry Tobago forward.
It will also fix tourism in the island, it assures voters, after years of not fixing it, and it will not only lay the infrastructure for the improved airport but also finish it in the next term.
The opposition is attacking the PNM on a variety of fronts, including emasculation of both the THA and the Tobago PNM, lapsing of the Autonomy Bill, the wreckage of Tobago tourism as a result of mismanagement of the sea-bridge, and injustice to the displaced in the planned expansion of the airport.
Who will win?
In Tobago, there is no ethnic differentiation of the population; to all intents and purposes, there is one ethnic group. So people are more likely to vote on issues and to show loyalty to the party.
Over the years, but leaving the admirable APT James aside as an anomaly, there has been a see-saw between the PNM and the Robinson forces. For some time now, the PNM has been in the ascendancy and, in the 2015 elections, beat the opposition badly. In Tobago East, Webster-Roy polled 7,951, crushing by 6,155 the second-place candidate Duke who, as an independent, polled 1796.
How does Duke overcome such a deficit? He has already shown that he can keep attracting support. In the 2017 THA elections, his party won two of the districts and lost a third by five votes. And he has been gaining ground ever since despite the politicisation of his personal imperfections, pulling in a good share of the Robinson constituency.
The recent NACTA opinion poll on Tobago shows that PDP is catching up to the PNM and is in fact behind by only five per cent.
The pollster declares: “The PNM is leading the PDP in Tobago East by five per cent—47 per cent to 42 per cent, with one per cent for a small party and ten per cent undecided. In Tobago West, the PNM’s lead is wider, by some eight per cent—48 per cent to 40 per cent with one per cent for small parties and 11 per cent undecided. The small parties would not make any difference in the outcome.”
The PDP has come a long way but to win Tobago East it has to also take most of the ten per cent of undecided voters.