After becoming the earliest recorded Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin, Beryl is now taking aim at Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. After slightly weakening by late yesterday, the system was at Category 4 strength, with maximum sustained winds of 250 kilometres per hour (KM/H) and higher gusts. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with the Jamaican Meteorological Service forecasting heavy rainfall to begin affecting the island early today, which would be later accompanied by “hurricane-force wind across the island, dangerous storm surge, and battering waves along coastal areas starting with eastern parishes.”
Jamaican forecasters said yesterday, “The current official forecast nudges the system to the north and increases the chance of the eye of the hurricane passing over the southern sections of the island.”
The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said Hurricane Beryl was expected to bring “life-threatening winds and storm surge” to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. While the NHC is forecasting Hurricane Beryl to begin weakening, they added, “Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night.”
Storm surge, according to the NHC, “could raise water levels by as much as five to eight feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as two to four feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands.”
Hurricane Beryl is forecast to produce rainfall totals of four to eight inches (100 to 200 millimetres), with localised maxima of 12 inches (300 millimetres), across Jamaica and the southwestern Haitian Peninsula through late Wednesday. Beryl will also produce rainfall amounts of four to eight inches (100 to 200 millimetres) with isolated amounts of ten inches (250 millimetres) across the Barahona Peninsula in the southwest Dominican Republic.
The NHC said, “This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding and mudslides.”
Eyes still on Invest 96L
Eyes still on Invest 96L Meteorological offices across the Windwards are monitoring an active tropical wave, the 17th of the year, east of the region. Dubbed Invest 96L, this area of low pressure has been producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity, with only marginally conducive conditions for development.
The NHC has given this system low chances of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 48 hours (ten per cent) and seven days (20 per cent) as it moves west between 25 and 30 KM/H.
According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, “At this time, the system poses no direct threat to Trinidad and Tobago, although moderate/heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms, and accompanying gusty winds are in the initial outlook for mid-week.”
Their forecast for today said, “Initially fair becoming partly cloudy with scattered showers and the medium (40 per cent) chance of the heavier shower or thunderstorm. Gradual improvement (is) expected by late evening, despite the lingering shower. Gusty winds and street flooding are possible near heavy downpours! There is a significant concentration of Saharan dust present in the atmosphere.”