Kalain Hosein
Meteorologist/Reporter
kalain.hosein@guardian.co.tt
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has placed the Lesser Antilles on alert as a tropical disturbance dubbed Invest 95L is forecast to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm east of the Windward Islands.
In their 2:00 PM Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC says the tropical disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, but “environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive, and development of this system is likely.”
The NHC gives this system a medium (60%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours and a high (80%) chance of development over the next seven days.
While there are no tropical cyclone-based watches or warnings for any island at this time, multiple meteorological offices across the region are on alert. The Barbados Meteorological Service, which forecasts impacts from this disturbance and eventual system on Sunday through Monday, has issued yellow alerts for wind, marine conditions, severe thunderstorms, and excessive rainfall.
The latest forecast guidance moves the core of this system north of Trinidad and Tobago and south of Barbados from Sunday night through Monday night and moves across the southern Windwards, from Grenada to St. Lucia, through Tuesday. While there is higher than usual certainty on the forecast path through Tuesday, the system’s intensity is not as clear, with models showing a wide range of outcomes – from a low-end tropical storm to a Category 3 Hurricane as it moves across the Windward Islands.
It is important to note that a weaker system will take a more southern track, placing T&T in line for heavier rains and stronger winds, versus a stronger system taking a more northern track, taking the most intense weather north of T&T but leading to damaging winds and flooding rains across our neighbours to the north.
Regardless, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and rough seas are anticipated during this period. The latest model guidance shows that the most intense winds and rains are forecast to remain north of T&T. However, this system is still three to four days away from moving near T&T and Barbados, so quite a lot can change.
The NHC is urging those with interests in the Lesser Antilles to pay close attention to this system, while meteorological offices from Trinidad and Tobago to St. Vincent are encouraging everyone to consult official sources of information and local media for updates.