Meteorologist/Reporter
kalain.hosein@guardian.co.tt
Hurricane Beryl’s eyewall loomed just several kilometres north and east of Tobago, packing sustained wind speeds of 215 KM/H. Yesterday morning, the island escaped the full ferocity of the catastrophic Category 4 hurricane as the system veered west-northwest.
T&T’s neighbours to the north were not so fortunate. Beryl continued to intensify as it moved over the Grenadines, with the eye of the hurricane moving directly over Carriacou Island, one of the many tiny islands comprising the Grenadines. While damage assessments and rescue and recovery efforts were ongoing across the affected countries, in a late-evening media conference yesterday, St Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves said at least one person has died, with Gonsalves saying there may be more fatalities.
Beryl brought life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds across Grenada, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and Barbados. It knocked out power, ripped off roofs, and caused widespread tree and structural damage.
Yesterday night, Hurricane Beryl was located approximately 1,460 kilometres east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, where a Hurricane Warning had been issued. The National Hurricane Centre said Hurricane Beryl had maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour (mph), or 250 kilometres per hour, just shy of Category 5 strength.
In Tobago, which was placed under its first Hurricane Warning since the early 2000s with Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and Hurricane Emily in 2005, the damage was sporadic, with some fallen trees, short-lived flash flooding, a few damaged roofs and structures, and minor landslides and wind damage.
Trinidad, which was also spared any major impacts, experienced a few wind gusts that felled trees, mainly across the northern half of the island, with short-lived street and flash flooding in Aranguez, San Juan, St Augustine, Tunapuna, El Dorado, Santa Cruz, and along the Arima Blanchisseuse Road.
Yesterday, the country cycled through several alerts, watches, and warnings, with Tobago starting the day under a Hurricane Warning, which was dropped to a Tropical Storm Warning, and finally an Adverse Weather Alert, which was joined by Trinidad’s Tropical Storm Warning yesterday morning, dropping to the Adverse Weather Alert by the afternoon. That is in effect for the country until 10 am today.
According to the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service, “There is a medium to high chance (60-70 per cent) of isolated heavy showers or thunderstorm activity, accompanied by gusty winds near 55 KM/H. These wind gusts can further agitate sea conditions. Street flooding is likely during heavy downpours, and landslides/landslips are possible in areas that are so prone.” Through this morning, the Met Office continued to advise the public to be weather-aware and “secure loose outdoor objects and livestock. Mariners should continue to exercise extra caution, do not venture into flood waters, monitor official news sources and weather updates, and follow instructions of government officials.”
Invest 96L: Another
system being monitored
While the Windward Islands, including Barbados, clean up after Beryl, the National Hurricane Centre is monitoring an area of low pressure located approximately 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Windwards.
According to the NHC, “Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western tropical Atlantic.”
Forecasters add, “Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.”
Development chances at the NHC have decreased over the last several days. They are now low (20 per cent) over the next 48 hours and medium (40 per cent) over the next seven days.
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service’s official statement on the system yesterday evening stated, “At this time, the system poses no direct threat to Trinidad and Tobago, although moderate/heavy showers, isolated thunderstorms, and accompanying gusty winds are in the initial outlook for mid-week.” Meanwhile, the Barbados Meteorological Service said yesterday, “Over the next few days, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some slow development as the wave tracks westwards across the Atlantic and is expected to be a strong tropical wave when it moves into our area.”
They expect “this feature will affect Barbados sometime on Wednesday 3rd July 2024 and during this time excessive rainfall, gusty winds, and deterioration of marine conditions are likely.”
Why did Beryl move north?
For the last few days, Hurricane Beryl has moved just north of the west but consistently remained south of the forecast track. Beryl was directed west to north of west over the last few days due to the semi-permanent high-pressure ridge in the North Atlantic, usually called the Bermuda or Azores High or the subtropical ridge.
However, stronger storms can influence their own movement through a process called beta drift. Air moving north on the eastern side of the storm acquires a clockwise spin, while air moving on the southward side of the storm acquires a counter-clockwise spin, which leads to northward movement.
For storms with a small hurricane or tropical storm-force wind field, these wobbles in the track can devastate one island but not the neighbouring one.