Senior Reporter
jesse.ramdeo@cnc3.co.tt
Pro Vice-Chancellor and Principal of the University of the West Indies (UWI) Five Islands Campus, Professor Justin Robinson, says the steadily escalating confrontation between the United States (US) and Venezuela is moving inexorably toward a change of government in Caracas, with far-reaching implications for the Caribbean.
In an interview with Guardian Media yesterday, Robinson explained that while a conventional war or direct military invasion appears unlikely, the US has instead opted for a sustained strategy of economic, diplomatic and strategic pressure designed to force political change.
“I don’t see war in the sense of an invasion,” Robinson said. “But I do see maximum pressure being brought to bear to achieve regime change.”
He warned that Caribbean States are increasingly being drawn into this campaign, often unwillingly, as Washington seeks regional support for its objectives.
“I think there is intense pressure being applied to individual Caribbean nations to align themselves with this regime-change agenda, and I believe that dynamic explains much of what we are now witnessing across the region,” he said.
Robinson pointed to the recently updated US travel ban affecting two Caribbean countries, including Antigua and Barbuda, as a striking example of the precarious position facing small states navigating competing geopolitical demands.
“When Antigua declined a US request to host a military radar installation, we now find ourselves placed on a travel ban list,” Robinson said.
He contrasted this with Grenada, which he said continues to consider a similar request, or at least has not formally rejected it.
The situation, he explained, leaves Caribbean governments trapped between two powerful forces.
“If you cooperate with the Americans, you expose yourself to Venezuelan threats. If you decline, you risk American displeasure,” Robinson said, describing the dilemma as a stark reminder of the limited strategic room for manoeuvre available to small island states.
In a Facebook post earlier this week, Robinson said, “The Caribbean finds itself where it has always preferred not to be, between great powers in collision. Caricom’s response has been one of improvisation, not coordination, each nation calculating its interests in real-time. The region needs to refocus and rapidly pivot to the reality of a global shift that demands nimble, sophisticated diplomacy of a kind we have not needed for a generation.”
He also underscored the importance of Caribbean unity and the role of Caricom going forward.
“So there are these differences, but we should not let differences on this single issue undermine Caricom. So that’s really my advice, to understand the nuances, understand the difference, seek common ground and almost do no harm. Don’t let differences on this issue undermine Caricom, which is so important to us in many other ways.”
Given the scale of Washington’s political and economic investment in pursuing change in Venezuela, Robinson said it is difficult to imagine any meaningful retreat.
“I cannot envisage a set of circumstances in which, having invested this much, the US would simply climb down,” he said.
“Whatever one’s personal views, I see regime change as almost inevitable.”
However, Robinson cautioned that the removal of a government does not guarantee stability, noting that history offers sobering lessons.
“The US has demonstrated that it is very effective at achieving regime change,” he said. “What it has not consistently demonstrated is the patience and long-term commitment required to successfully build what comes after.”
He warned that a poorly managed transition in Venezuela could produce serious knock-on effects for neighbouring Caribbean states, from economic disruption to increased migration pressures and security concerns.
“My hope, my simple hope, is that whatever follows is not as messy as we have seen in the past,” Robinson said. “Because if it is, that could present real and lasting challenges for the Caribbean.”
Robinson’s comments come at a time of growing regional anxiety, as Caribbean leaders and citizens alike grapple with the consequences of intensifying US-Venezuela tensions and the difficult choices being forced upon small states striving to protect their sovereignty and stability.
Beckles: National security must not be reduced to ‘political theatre’
Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Pennelope Beckles continued to criticise the Government’s handling of the installation of a radar system in Tobago, arguing that conflicting explanations, secrecy and alleged misinformation have undermined public trust and raised serious questions about national security governance.
“National security cannot rest on secrecy alone, nor can it survive on political mockery,” she said, emphasising that trust is built when a government speaks “plainly, honestly, and consistently” with its people.
In a statement, she stressed that national security must never be “reduced to political theatre,” and accused the Government of providing contradictory accounts from the highest levels of authority.
