PROF HAMID GHANY
hamid.ghany@sta.uwi.edu
Now that Nomination Day has come and gone, the spotlight now shifts to voter turnout—an unpredictable yet decisive factor that could shape the outcome of the 2025 general election for every party and candidate in the race.
As the 2025 general election campaign heats up, one critical factor looms large: how many people will actually show up to cast a ballot? To understand what is at stake, an examination of statistics from the 2020 general election will give us some insight into how turnout affected that election.
The official turnout in 2020 was 58.04 per cent of the Elections and Boundaries Commission's (EBC) list of voters, and the PNM walked away with 49.08 per cent of the votes cast, securing 22 seats out of 41 they contested. The UNC earned 47.09 per cent of the votes cast and won 19 seats out of 39 seats they contested.
For the fourth time in our political history, the party that won a majority of seats and formed the government did so with a minority of votes–fewer than half of the total votes cast.
This was not new: in 1991, 2007, and 2010, similar outcomes emerged. In 1991, the PNM won 21 out of 36 seats with 45.02 per cent of the votes cast. In 2007, they took 26 of the 41 seats with 45.99 per cent of the votes. Then in 2010, the UNC won 21 of the 41 seats–from the 29 that they contested–with 43.72 per cent of the votes cast.
In political science, this phenomenon is known as a “manufactured majority.”
It is a common feature of the first-past-the-post electoral system, where differences in voter turnout across constituencies can lead to a party winning more seats than their share of the national vote would suggest.
In the 2020 election, the prime reason why there was a “manufactured majority” was because there were eight seats that were won with a less than 50 per cent turnout of voters, and all of those seats were won by the PNM.
Those seats were (i) Port-of-Spain South (42.33%), (ii) Laventille West (43.71%), (iii) Diego Martin West (46.67%), (iv) Port-of-Spain North/St Ann’s West (46.74%), (v) Laventille East/Morvant (47.17%), (vi) Diego Martin North East (47.34%), Diego Martin Central (48.45%), and Tobago West (49.88%).
Seven of these seats are geographically contiguous and comprise the north-west part of Trinidad. Only Tobago West is not connected to them.
These lowest turnout levels below 50 per cent are to be contrasted with the top eight constituencies with the highest turnout: (i) Moruga/Tableland (69.29%), (ii) Pointe-a-Pierre (66.21%), (iii) Fyzabad (65.74%), (iv) La Horquetta/Talparo (64.22%), (v) St. Joseph (63.94%), (vi) Chaguanas East (63.60%), (vii) Tunapuna (63.12%) and St Augustine (63.02%).
The two Tobago constituencies had turnout figures as follows: (i) Tobago East (56.76%) and (ii) Tobago West (49.88%). In the case of Tobago East, that turnout represented an increase from 2015, when the turnout was 52.29 per cent, while in the case of Tobago West, there was a further decline from the 2015 turnout, which was 51.45 per cent.
The UNC did not contest any seats in Tobago. As a result, the head-to-head voter tally in Trinidad alone was UNC: 309,188 and PNM: 305,848. Despite the UNC receiving more votes, the first-past-the-post system resulted in the PNM winning 20 seats and the UNC 19 seats in Trinidad. This outcome highlights the systemic imbalance that the first-past-the-post system can produce.
The total popular vote across all 41 constituencies saw the PNM registering 322,250 from both islands combined. This marked the fourth occasion on which the UNC secured more votes than the PNM in Trinidad alone—the previous instances being in 2000, 2001, and 2010. These results highlight the crucial strategic importance of Tobago to the PNM’s overall electoral success.
However, the PNM has held an advantage over the UNC in every election since 2001, largely due to its consistent hold on the two Tobago seats—except in 2010, when the Tobago Organisation of the People (TOP), as part of the People’s Partnership, won both.
The lower voter turnout in 2020 (58.04%) compared to 66.8% in 2015 might be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a closer look at the numbers shows that this was not the case across the board, as turnout varied significantly across different parts of the country.
Twenty-nine out of the 41 constituencies recorded a voter turnout higher than the national average of 58.04 per cent.
These constituencies were:
1. Moruga/Tableland – 69.35%
2. Pointe-a-Pierre 66.21%
3. Fyzabad – 65.74%
4. La Horquetta/Talparo – 64.29%
5. St Joseph – 63.94%
6. Chaguanas East – 63.60%
7. Tunapuna – 63.12%
8. St Augustine – 63.02%
9. Mayaro – 62.55%
10. Chaguanas West – 62.52%
11. San Fernando West – 62.34%
12. Caroni Central – 62.04%
13. Lopinot/Bon Air West – 61.62%
14. Oropouche West – 61.43%
15. Barataria/San Juan – 61.39%
16. Cumuto/Manzanilla – 61.38%
17. Couva North – 61.07%
18. Oropouche East 60.86%
19. Siparia – 60.70%
20. Point Fortin – 60.36%
21. Couva South – 60.24%
22. Caroni East – 59.99%
23. La Brea – 59.87%
24. Princes Town – 59.71%
25. Naparima – 59.28%
26. Tabaquite – 58.68%
27. Toco/Sangre Grande – 58.61%
28. San Fernando East – 58.34%
29. Arouca/Maloney – 58.19%
Of the 29 constituencies, the UNC won 19, while the PNM secured ten. The remaining 12 constituencies won by the PNM all recorded voter turnout below the national average of 58.04 per cent, contributing to their manufactured majority of 22 out of 41 seats in the 2020 general election.
These were:
1. Port-of-Spain South (42.43%)
2. Laventille West (43.66%)
3. Diego Martin West (46.67%)
4. Port-of-Spain North/St Ann’s West (46.73%)
5. Laventille East/Morvant (47.17%)
6. Diego Martin North East (47.34%)
7. Diego Martin Central (48.45%)
8. Tobago West (49.88%)
9. St Ann’s East (50.21%)
10. Arima (51.13%)
11. Tobago East (56.76%)
12. D’Abadie/O’Meara (57.96%)
It will be interesting to see how the 2025 turnout figures compare to those of 2020, when the majority of constituencies—29 out of 41—recorded higher turnout than the national average of 58.04 per cent, contributing to the PNM securing a manufactured majority.