The last couple of columns looked at Carnival economics and concluded it looks like a scam, a massive feeding trough for political/cultural hogs. That conclusion was data-based�a parliamentary report on the NCC, government sources, and a basic knowledge of economics and cultural economy. But other, alternative facts and conclusions are out there. Calypsonian De Fosto was on CNC3's Morning Brew show on Monday, presenting many of them. He believes Carnival generates about $2 billion. And "somebody" told him it was closer to $10 billion, and he wants his share. (The clip is here https://youtu.be/DK7Kt4gzNpY.)
De Fosto's song, of which a snippet was played on the Morning Brew, said, in essence: "Don't treat we so. We want we money!" It's logical if calypsonians, steelbandsmen, NCBA, TUCO, believe they generate billions of dollars, to want their share of it. Incidentally, the Minister of Tourism believes Carnival generated $350 million last year (though she provided no data on how that number was derived). De Fosto's logic would be sound even if this lower number were true: a $350 million return for a $250 million investment is great. If it were true.
This (notion of Carnival profit generation) is relatively new. Carnival economics has always been a polite way of saying "State handout". In newspapers and studies of Carnival prior to, say, 1990, you'd be hard pressed to find any notion that Carnival was a money maker. To take a random year, 1984. The Guardian's editorial on February 16, reported a dropoff in the hotel bookings that year, and floated the idea that "if tourism is to be developed...Carnival must play an important role." It also asked whether or not the drop-off in tourist arrivals might not have been a result of the "horrors" suffered by visitors the previous year.
In the same year, Pan Trinbago decided to refrain from asking the Ministry of Culture for more money because of the economic situation. In the 1960s, the government made itself the godfather of the steelband movement, and tried to strong-arm the business community into supporting bands.
So where did this notion come from? It started with the PNM administration of 1991�1995. Alfred Aguiton was appointed head of the NCC, and first floated the idea of monetising Carnival at a press conference in 1992. (I was there.) Naturally, it flopped. But what really gave life to the idea was the accession of the UNC government of 1996. Suddenly (to "cultural" people outside government) the Carnival became of superlative national importance. Once the Manning government cheated its way back into power in 2002, it immediately increased Carnival funding and intensified its promotion as the "national" festival. And somewhere in there the notion that it generated all these fantastic returns was crafted.
UNC Culture Minister Sen Daphne Phillips said in the Senate (on September 12, 2000), Carnival funding had increased from $11.5 million in 1995 to $19 million in 2000. This was a modest increase of less than 20 per cent per year. By the time the PNM left office in 2010, it was more than $100 million, an increase of 1,000 per cent. In 2011 it was $231 million. When the PP left office in 2015 it was over $300 million.
What accounted for this increase? Simple: the PNM's political calculation that the best way to stay in power was to Carnivalise the society. This meant the viral spread of Carnival, the insistence on its "national importance" and its African origin to enrage its base with ideas of ownership and entitlement. It also kept the population distracted while the PM, his pals and his prophetess got up to all kinds of mischief. The PP, once it got in, saw it similarly: as a convenient way to distract the populace from their own impressive mischief.
But, as any good Marxist knows, capital needs culture to make it legitimate. Once the money began to grow from tens to hundreds of millions, a Carnival eco-system formed. Segments, groups, became dependent on it. To protect the flow of money, justifications were required and all sorts of arguments and theories emerged about the importance of Carnival to national identity, to tourism, to art. Carnival Studies appeared at tertiary institutions, along with Carnival conferences, Carnival academies and special interest groups.
Each group had its rationale, which took as starting point the axioms of profit, nationalistic/patriotic benefit, and artistic value. Unfortunately, none of these was true. Carnival's expansion was made possible only by government's increasing funding, not its own economic potential. It was not and is not financially self-sustaining and possesses no or negative innate intangible value. (Look at the society for proof of that.) People might think it's valuable, but not so much to actually invest in or pay for it.
So now, money done and people like De Fosto are enraged at the loss of income, but it's not just calypsonians. Many have built academic and other careers and businesses in the last 10 to 15 years on this foundation. Except those businesses don't make money, they just take it from the government. I doubt the promoters of the big shows, ISM, Chutney SM, could show a credible business plan to a bank for a loan.
Bottom line, the hustlers are in pain. Some hustlers might even have drunk their own Koolaid and believe they're really what they think they are–patriots, or some such twattery. I have no sympathy either way because critical thinking and dissent at the Carnival argument, expatiated only in this column (nowhere else that I know of), has been stifled, ignored, and dissembled for years. In fact what's happening now resembles an investment bubble (a la the US derivatives market crash of 2008), which a few people pointed out before hand and were ignored and reviled. As De Fosto might say, "bubble buss."