It should be clear to all by now that the number of babies born throughout the world has decreased over the last ten years. Without delving into the major reasons for this (reduction in child mortality, increased cost of living; better educated girls), the situation in T&T is no different.
Last year, the number of babies born in T&T dropped to under 10,000. In the seventies and eighties, we regularly saw 30,000 babies arriving each year. The drop began around 2000 and the COVID lockdown paradoxically caused the decrease to increase. Familiarisation may indeed breed contempt.
We are well on the way to seeing an overall decrease in the total population of T&T. Around 10,000 people die annually in T&T, mainly from old age, cancer and heart disease. This figure has been constant over the years. We need at least 10,000 births to keep up. If the number of births continues to drop, soon we will not be able to maintain our population unless we import people.
Who wants to come to T&T, where corruption, crime and the drug industry are ways of life, young people cannot afford to buy houses and the cost of living is going up every month and that’s before the erratic American President’s tariffs hit us.
The good news is that pressure on school placements will disappear, eg. in 2035 there will be around 10,000 children taking the SEA and government will find itself with empty classrooms and schools and will, of course, take credit for this while sending home teachers who will also have lost the opportunity to give extra classes for the SEA exam.
All of the children’s wards at the many children’s hospitals in the country will be empty and the entire bunch of paediatricians who UWI has been churning out, will find themselves without patients and may have to turn to dentistry, a profession that knows how to pace itself.
In the long run, there will not be enough people working to maintain NIB monthly payments and today’s workers will find in 20 years that their pensions do not go far enough
Apart from the decrease in births, there is another interesting trend taking place, one I have not yet seen in T&T, but, given our tendency for imitation, may not be too far off. It is that the centuries-old preference seen in all societies for baby boys may be coming to an end!
Parents around the world increasingly value daughters over sons. Baby boys are being seen as a burden. This trend has been growing for the past two decades. It is especially evident in India and China, the world’s two most populous countries where, for years, since the advent of fetal ultrasonography, millions of sex-selective abortions have led to millions of “missing” girls, estimated to be about 20 million since 1990. The trend is taking off in Western society too, where the historic preference for a son to carry on the family name is fast fading.
Naturally, about 102 or 103 boys are born for every 100 girls. This is an evolutionary mechanism necessary to offset the increased mortality of baby boys. In India and China, where in the 90s the ratio used to be 115 boys to every 100 girls, it is now 105 boys for every 100 girls, and dropping. Girl fetuses are being allowed to live!
In various European countries, France, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Belgium and the Czech Republic, it’s been found that parents are less likely to have a second child if the first is a girl. Studies in Finland in the 80s found that if a girl came first, parents were very likely to try for the boy. Not anymore. And in Japan, 75% of married couples wanting one child now say they would prefer a girl. It was less than half in the 80s.
Fertility clinics in the US, where it is legal to select the sex of an embryo during IVF, say there is a growing demand for girls. With the present political setup, this law is expected to be changed.
Exactly what the reasons for this shift in attitudes is not known. Some say daughters are more nurturing or easier to raise, or can be looked at as a means of support in old age. In China, where there are legions of unmarried men, parents may now fear loneliness for their sons.
What’s the situation in T&T? I personally have not noticed any change. Parents seem equally happy to get a boy or a girl and the stats from the public sector do not show any difference in the usual 102 to 100 ratio. I doubt it’s any different in the private nursing homes.
