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Thursday, May 8, 2025

Dukharan: Time to fix the ‘gaping hole’ in T&T’s economic roof

by

Geisha Kowlessar-Alonzo
1107 days ago
20220427

High oil and gas prices and a re­turn to nor­mal life will def­i­nite­ly have pos­i­tive fis­cal, ex­ter­nal, and growth ef­fects for T&T, says econ­o­mist Dr Mar­la Dukha­ran.

In her Caribbean Month­ly Quar­ter­ly Eco­nom­ic Re­port is­sued on Mon­day she, how­ev­er, ad­vised that these ef­fects will be “tran­sient at best.”

Ac­cord­ing to Dukha­ran sus­tained medi­um-term eco­nom­ic per­for­mance will de­pend on the ur­gent im­ple­men­ta­tion of re­forms to fis­cal and for­eign ex­change man­age­ment “at least.”

Not­ing that the In­ter­na­tion­al Mon­e­tary Fund (IMF) is ex­pect­ing glob­al growth to slow from 6.1 per cent in 2021 to 3.6 per cent in 2022 to 2023 and 3.3 per cent over the medi­um-term, Dukha­ran said glob­al growth be­low three per cent is con­sid­ered a glob­al re­ces­sion.

“And al­ready the IMF shaved 0.8 and 0.2 per­cent­age points off its 2022 and 2023 growth pro­jec­tions just three months af­ter ini­tial­ly pub­lish­ing them, demon­strat­ing the high lev­el of un­cer­tain­ty pre­vail­ing and down­side risks to the out­look,” Dukha­ran ex­plained, cit­ing that the IMF’s Man­ag­ing Di­rec­tor re­cent­ly ad­vised coun­tries that “when the sun is shin­ing, fix the roof.”

And in March, when the IMF re­leased its Staff Re­port for T&T, Dukha­ran fur­ther not­ed that this high­light­ed “the gap­ing hole in our roof.”

Ac­cord­ing to Dukha­ran, in 2019 when most economies re­gion­al­ly were record­ing pos­i­tive growth, T&T had post­ed its fourth con­sec­u­tive year of eco­nom­ic con­trac­tion.

“This is not just a re­ces­sion. This is a stag­na­tion pre­cip­i­tat­ed by years of re­lent­less­ly poor gov­er­nance and in­ap­pro­pri­ate if not detri­men­tal pol­i­cy choic­es not by COVID or any oth­er ex­oge­nous shocks,” Dukha­ran said.

Fur­ther, she added, that T&T has now con­tract­ed for six con­sec­u­tive years; 2016 to 2021.

Dukha­ran al­so not­ed that the IMF al­so re­port­ed “a strong eco­nom­ic re­cov­ery is pro­ject­ed for 2022, with down­side risks pre­dom­i­nat­ing. Still, out­put would re­main be­low pre-COVID-19 lev­els well in­to the medi­um term.”

Ac­cord­ing to Dukha­ran, “strong re­cov­ery” puts growth at 5.5 per cent in 2022, three per cent in 2023, then av­er­ag­ing one per cent in 2027, which on­ly re­turns T&T’s econ­o­my to its 2016 size in 2025.

To­tal debt is ex­pect­ed to in­crease steadi­ly to at least $113.5 bil­lion by 2027, and is cur­rent­ly es­ti­mat­ed at 88 per cent of GDP, with no bal­anced bud­get in sight, she said.

Fur­ther, Dukha­ran added that in­fla­tion is now pro­ject­ed at 5.5 per cent this year and 3.1 per cent in 2023.

Dukha­ran em­pha­sised that the IMF high­light­ed many ar­eas of con­cern in its re­port, per­haps the most per­sis­tent of which is this coun­try’s for­eign ex­change regime; “The cur­rent sys­tem ra­tions in­di­vid­ual FX de­mands, which mo­ti­vates the cre­ation of schemes to cir­cum­vent them. A pro­lif­er­a­tion of spe­cial-pur­pose fa­cil­i­ties at the Ex­im­bank to pri­or­i­tize FX ac­cess to man­u­fac­tur­ers, im­porters of ne­ces­si­ties—in­clud­ing SOEs—have pro­duced a hy­brid ex­change rate sys­tem that is prone to in­ef­fi­cien­cies. The cur­rent ac­count gap is es­ti­mat­ed at -3.4 per cent sug­gest­ing a cur­ren­cy over­val­u­a­tion of 11.6 per cent...”

Fur­ther, Dukha­ran not­ed that the IMF sug­gest­ed that the Gov­ern­ment “elim­i­nate ex­change re­stric­tions and mul­ti­ple cur­ren­cy prac­tices…re­place the spe­cial pur­pose win­dows at the Ex­im­bank to re­duce those in­ef­fi­cien­cies.” Fur­ther­more, it al­so re­port­ed the net Er­rors and Omis­sions item at -US$2.1 bil­lion in 2017, US$2.2 bil­lion in 2018, and US$1.1 bil­lion in 2019.

“This rep­re­sents a to­tal net out­flow of US$5.4 bil­lion in just three years from our FX re­serves that the Cen­tral Bank/Gov­ern­ment is un­able to ex­plain. This is about the same as the HSF bal­ance,” Dukha­ran added.

Ad­di­tion­al­ly, she al­so cit­ed that oth­er im­por­tant IMF rec­om­men­da­tions in­clude “to pub­lish a COVID-re­lat­ed spend­ing re­port, in­clud­ing in­for­ma­tion on the ben­e­fi­cial own­er­ship of en­ti­ties award­ed COVID-re­lat­ed con­tracts, to strength­en trans­paren­cy” and “au­dit­ing the stock of VAT re­funds (es­ti­mat­ed at 5.2 per cent of GDP).”

But Dukha­ran said the IMF’s lan­guage in its re­port is “un­der­stand­ably diplo­mat­ic and mea­sured, oth­er­wise the au­thor­i­ties will not re­lease it, which has hap­pened in the past,” adding that many mis­in­ter­pret­ed the tone there­fore, as ‘pos­i­tive’ and even sug­gest that the econ­o­my has shown signs of ‘tremen­dous re­cov­ery.”

“The sun is shin­ing now, so let’s fix our roof,” Dukha­ran stressed.

She al­so not­ed that T&T’s in­fla­tion reached 4.2 per cent in Feb­ru­ary 2022 led by food prices up 8.6 per cent and home own­er­ship prices up 8.3 per cent.

Al­so, she cit­ed that the en­er­gy sec­tor grew in Q4 2021 as prices be­gan to rise, though the non-en­er­gy sec­tor re­mained weak.

Un­em­ploy­ment reached 7.2 per cent in De­cem­ber 2020 as the num­ber of peo­ple em­ployed de­creased by five per cent year on year.

The coun­try’s re­po rate was left un­changed at 3.5 per cent in March.

The IMF projects T&T’s en­er­gy sec­tor, Dukha­ran added, will plateau over the medi­um term, and calls for ex­change rate flex­i­bil­i­ty to achieve ex­ter­nal bal­ance and pro­vide space for coun­ter­cycli­cal mon­e­tary pol­i­cy.

She ref­er­enced that the IMF high­light­ed, “the cur­rent sys­tem ra­tions in­di­vid­ual FX de­mands, which mo­ti­vates the cre­ation of schemes to cir­cum­vent them.”

In FY2022 the non-en­er­gy pri­ma­ry fis­cal deficit is ex­pect­ed by the IMF to reach $21.4 bil­lion, once out­stand­ing val­ue-added tax (VAT) re­funds of $2 bil­lion are paid, Dukha­ran fur­ther not­ed.

The IMF al­so fore­casts growth for this coun­try of 5.5 per cent in 2022, three per cent in 2023, then av­er­ag­ing one per cent to 2027.

And Dukha­ran main­tained, “We al­so ex­pect a bal­ance of pay­ments cri­sis to de­vel­op this year, ab­sent sig­nif­i­cant re­forms and eco­nom­ic re­cov­ery.”

The re­port al­so ex­am­ined the eco­nom­ic health of oth­er coun­tries in the re­gion.

For in­stance, Dukha­ran said Guyana’s econ­o­my grew 19.9 per cent in 2021 in spite of the floods which heav­i­ly im­pact­ed agri­cul­ture and min­ing ac­tiv­i­ty.

Its in­fla­tion end­ed 2021 at 5.7 per cent.

She al­so not­ed that the coun­try’s Bal­ance of Pay­ments sur­plus ex­pand­ed as the in­crease in for­eign di­rect in­vest­ment and COVID-re­lat­ed spe­cial draw­ing rights (SDR) al­lo­ca­tions from the IMF off­set the wider cur­rent ac­count deficit, which came as a re­sult of equip­ment im­ports re­lat­ed to oil pro­duc­tion and ser­vice pay­ments. Net in­ter­na­tion­al re­serves stood at US$742 mil­lion or 1.6 months of im­port cov­er in Feb­ru­ary 2022 for Guyana.


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