Erik Lavoie
Can electric vehicles (EVs) provide climate benefits in a country that relies entirely on fossil fuels for electricity? A Guardian Media investigation suggests that, despite the challenges, EVs can still offer modest climate benefits in T&T.
Driving an EV 15,000 kilometres annually can lead to an estimated 31 percent reduction in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (see graph). The comparison is based on a gasoline-powered car with a fuel efficiency of 25 miles per gallon (MPG), equivalent to 10.5 kilometres per litre (km/l).
GHGs like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere, leading to global warming and climate change. CO2, mainly produced by burning fossil fuels, is the largest GHG due to its large volume and long-lasting presence in the atmosphere, while CH4 is a much stronger greenhouse gas with a limited lifespan. Both contribute to rising temperatures, melting arctic ice and more extreme weather events.
Although the 31 per cent reduction in emissions associated with EV use in T&T is lower than in countries with higher penetrations of renewable energy, it still represents a decent improvement. Benefits are expected to vary widely, potentially exceeding 50 per cent in some cases. In other cases, EVs may cause more emissions than traditional cars. The significant variability in predicted benefits are mainly due to differences in the fuel efficiency of the gasoline-powered car being replaced, time and location of EV charging and methane emissions from natural gas flaring and pipeline infrastructure.
While EV adoption in T&T can offer moderate climate benefits, economic issues may arise with their adoption. Increased demand for electricity could deplete natural gas reserves faster, potentially leading to higher gas prices. Additionally, lower-income individuals, who drive less fuel-efficient cars, may not afford EVs without government incentives and decreasing EV prices.
Higher initial emissions for EV manufacturing
EVs initially have a higher greenhouse gas emission footprint compared to gasoline-powered cars. Research by the Fuels Institute in the U.S. found that manufacturing an EV is more than twice as carbon-intensive as producing a gasoline-powered car, with 11 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent for EVs compared to 5 metric tonnes for gasoline cars. A significant part of this difference is due to the production of EV batteries, which often takes place in largely coal-powered China, according to the MIT Climate Portal. Electricity generated from coal is among the highest in carbon emissions per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
Given the higher emissions from manufacturing, an EV that is not used or is barely used over its lifetime will likely contribute more to climate change than a traditional gasoline-powered car.
Benefits of EVs realised through driving
The real benefits of EVs are realised through avoiding the use of gasoline as a fuel. The significant difference in emissions per kilometre between EVs and gas-powered cars allows EVs to not only make up for their initial manufacturing emissions deficit but also to provide substantial emissions savings compared to gas-powered cars.
In T&T, driving a 25 MPG (10.6 km/l) gasoline-powered car emits an estimated 265 grams of CO2-equivalent per kilometre (gCO2eq/km). This is estimated to be 90 per cent higher than the emissions from driving an EV for the same distance, with an estimated 140 gCO2eq/km. These percentages vary with the fuel efficiency of gasoline cars: emissions are 137 per cent higher for 20 MPG (8.5 km/l) cars and 58 per cent higher for 35 MPG (14.9 km/l) cars. Additionally, the benefits increase with higher annual mileage. For example, driving 20,000 kilometres per year in an EV provides an estimated 10 per cent more emissions savings compared to driving 10,000 kilometres per year.
This data indicates that to maximise carbon footprint reduction, EV owners should use their cars frequently and ideally replace a lower fuel efficiency vehicle. With 100 per cent charging from home solar, emissions reductions from an EV compared to a 25 MPG (10.6 km/l) gasoline-powered car could be as high as 75 per cent.
Uncertainty in extent of benefits
The climate benefits of EV usage relative to gasoline-powered cars can vary widely, potentially exceeding 50 per cent in some cases, while including possibilities of slight negative impacts in other scenarios. For instance, gasoline-powered cars with fuel efficiencies higher than 35 miles per gallon can be more climate-friendly than an EV in T&T. An EV driven less than 5,000 kilometres a year may result in higher emissions compared to a gasoline-powered car, while someone driving more than 30,000 kilometres a year will achieve the greatest emissions reductions.
The benefits of EVs in T&T can vary based on time and location. Different times and locations of EV charging mean different generators in T&T increasing electricity output to charge an EV. Not all power plants in T&T have the same fuel efficiency, leading to varying rates of natural gas use for the same amount of electricity production. For example, a kilowatt-hour of electricity consumed in Tobago from T&TEC’s Cove Power Plant may produce up to 40 per cent less emissions than the same amount generated by the PowerGen plant in Penal, Trinidad.
The most significant source of uncertainty could originate from methane emissions. Methane makes up about 80 to 90 per cent of natural gas and is a very strong greenhouse gas, contributing to global warming 28 times more per unit than carbon dioxide over a 100-year period, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Although natural gas power plants emit very little methane, leaks from natural gas pipelines and flaring can significantly contribute to methane emissions. This is especially relevant for EVs in T&T since its electricity comes from natural gas plants which utilise the natural gas pipelines.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), the average amount of natural gas lost as methane emissions due to flaring and transportation is 1.4 per cent of production, a figure used in this article’s calculations. A methane leakage rate of 8 per cent or higher would negate most climate benefits of EVs in T&T, making gasoline-powered cars more climate-friendly.
At the 1.4 percent rate, methane leakage accounts for 13 per cent of per kWh emissions during an EV’s operation. However, the National Gas Company (NGC), T&T’s gas pipeline operator, shared information in its 2022 Sustainability Report suggesting that the NGC is responsible for just 0.5 per cent of per kWh emissions, which is 26 times less than the US DoE’s average estimate. If the NGC’s assessments of methane emissions are complete and correct, EVs could provide up to an additional 5 per cent reduction in emissions beyond what is shown in the graph.
EVs and economic concerns
While EVs are expected to offer moderate benefits for the climate in T&T even with the usage of natural gas for electricity generation, there are important economic issues to consider with their adoption.
Virtually all of Trinidad and Tobago’s electricity is produced using natural gas. As more people switch to EVs, the demand for electricity will rise, speeding up the depletion of T&T’s natural gas reserves. The NGC may be forced to raise the price of gas as reserves run closer to depletion. This is more likely to happen if the Dragon gas project with Venezuela does not go as planned.
There are also concerns of economic disparities in EV ownership. People with lower incomes often drive the least fuel-efficient cars, which contribute most to climate change. These cars are less likely to be replaced by EVs due to their price tag. Government incentives and the falling prices of EVs over time can help address this issue.
As a result, economic considerations will likely dictate the timeline for widespread EV adoption. However, other developments may help accelerate the process. For instance, EV uptake will likely increase if T&T’s electricity grid moves toward decarbonisation. All of these factors can help EVs establish a significant presence in the vehicle market, bringing along climate and health benefits for all.
