China's president Xi Jinping promised US$3 billion in soft loans for Caricom, Back-pocket change? Maybe.
Nicaragua's parliament on June 13 agreed a US$40 billion proposal from a Hong Kong company for a new Caribbean-Pacific canal to eclipse Panama's. That came after just two days' debate, and with no votes against.
Forty billion. That is the entire output of Trinidad and Tobago's economy for 20 months, from oil and gas to nail salons and fried chicken.
The HK Nicaraguan Canal Development Investment Company now has a renewable 50-year concession to build and operate a canal linking Nicaragua's Caribbean and Pacific coasts. Two free trade zones, an airport and a "dry canal" freight railway are also in their shopping cart.
The company is led by Wang Jing, a Hong Kong tycoon with smart connections in Beijing and elsewhere. His telecoms company Xinwei does not have a lot of experience in hydro-engineering or shipping. But alliances can be built and staff recruited.
State-owned China Railway Construction Company is in the loop. There are consulting deals with solid US firms such as McKinsey. Indeed, the Washington consultancy world is abuzz. The next phase will be design, analysis, financial planning and a truckload of environmental impact assessments. Optimists would like studies completed and ready to go by 2016, with ships afloat a decade later.
So far, there is no agreed route. But the canal will run through Lake Nicaragua, a beautiful expanse of water one and a half times the area of Trinidad, with freshwater tarpon and bull sharks. Nicaragua's secretary of public policies says the project will double his country's GDP by 2018
The Chinese government is not directly involved, but Chinese development banks could be. Says Evan Ellis of the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies in Washington "HKND will fund up to $100 million for Phase One out of its own pockets. I don't think Wang Jing would make a $100 million personal bet if he didn't believe he could if necessary turn to the Chinese to fund the construction phase."
The US Congress first debated a Nicaragua canal in 1824. Two rival routes jockeyed for US support over almost a century. Panama won, completed 99 years ago in 1914 � at a cost not far off 30,000 lives. An army of Caribbean and other labourers did the heavy work.
Panama will in 2015 complete its own US$5.3 billion expansion, a decade or more ahead of its rival. New locks will allow bigger ships. That in itself will shake up the shipping world, in the Caribbean and beyond.
The expanded Panama canal will take all but the largest LNG tankers. That will cut the shipping cost for Trinidad and Tobago cargoes in Far East markets; it "is going to make us more competitive in the Pacific basin," said energy minister Kevin Ramnarine in April.
But how much cash is saved will depend on Panama's fee structure. High charges may allow shippers only a marginal saving compared to the long route round Africa.
Bigger canals bring bigger ships which will by-pass most Caricom ports. The Panamax ships which can now just squeeze through the canal need water depth in port of at least 12 metres.
Kingston can easily take Panamax ships. But Port of Spain, Point Lisas and most Caricom ports can not. Much of their cargo comes through Kingston or another regional hub.
Kingston will struggle to keep its role. It does not have the 15-plus metres water depth required by the Post-Panamax vessels which will use the revamped canal in two years' time.
These huge inter-ocean carriers will use deep water ports like Freeport on Grand Bahama, which is run by a Hong Kong company, Hutchison Whampoa. So are the ports of Balboa and Cristobal, nicely placed at each end of the Panama canal..
Kingston needs its own 15-metre port. Fort Augusta, just west of Kingston.
That one was dropped in April; too small, said Jamaica's prime minister Portia Simpson Miller. She spoke of an ambitious US$1.5 billion scheme, with a power plant, a cement plant to rival TCL's Caribbean Cement, and other large-scale industries.
China Harbour has until mid-2014 to develop a firm plan, with costings and environmental studies. There is talk of a link to Vernamfield, a former US air base 55 km west of Kingston.
The Nicaragua canal would be one jump up again. Panamax ships can take 5,000 20-foot containers. Post-Panamax vessels will carry 13,500. Nicaragua would most likely be designed for 18,000-container monsters. Kingston might possibly stretch to take these. Other Caricom ports will have no chance unless they too find Chinese backers for mega-schemes.
Even Nicaragua may find a larger-capacity rival � to be opened up by climate change, not engineering. By 2020, up to 15% of China's trade may pass through a melting Arctic. For that, of course, the true cost would be far more than US$40 billion.