KALAIN HO­SEIN

The 2021 Dry Sea­son is fore­cast to be wet­ter than av­er­age for Trinidad and To­ba­go, break­ing from the last two dry sea­sons where harsh, dry con­di­tions oc­curred.

Ac­cord­ing to the Trinidad and To­ba­go Me­te­o­ro­log­i­cal Ser­vice (TTMS), the main dri­ver for these wet­ter than av­er­age con­di­tions will be a mod­er­ate to strong La Niña in the Pa­cif­ic Ocean.  

La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño-South­ern Os­cil­la­tion and usu­al­ly brings more rain­fall to Trinidad and To­ba­go.  This La Niña event is fore­cast to peak be­tween De­cem­ber through Feb­ru­ary, with La Niña con­di­tions con­tin­u­ing through April 2021.

Above Av­er­age Rain­fall Ex­pect­ed

Above-average rainfall is predicted for Dry Season 2021. Image courtesy Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS).

While a wet­ter than usu­al De­cem­ber through Jan­u­ary is fore­cast, as well as an over­all wet­ter than av­er­age dry sea­son, the TTMS is still ad­vis­ing that long, sun­ny spells will still oc­cur, as is typ­i­cal for the dry sea­son at large. How­ev­er, with La Niña con­di­tions, sup­pres­sion of ex­ces­sive dry­ness is like­ly.

How­ev­er, the TTMS is ad­vis­ing that above-av­er­age rain­fall in the dry sea­son does not mean sub­stan­tial rain­fall dur­ing the sea­son.  In an av­er­age dry sea­son, the num­ber of dry days (days with less than 1.0 mil­lime­tres of rain record­ed) is 109, but for 2021, the TTMS fore­casts 90 dry days.

In a typ­i­cal dry sea­son, Trinidad records 434 mil­lime­tres on av­er­age; across To­ba­go, 344 mil­lime­tres are record­ed.  Over­all, the coun­try re­ceives 412 mil­lime­tres on av­er­age dur­ing the dry sea­son.  

For the 2021 Dry Sea­son, rain­fall to­tals be­tween 425 to 920 mil­lime­tres are like­ly. While March is usu­al­ly the dry sea­son's dri­est month, the TTMS is fore­cast­ing April 2021 to be the dri­est month for the sea­son.

Dur­ing the sec­ond half of the dry sea­son, the TTMS al­so fore­casts mod­er­ate­ly en­hanced chances for wet­ter than usu­al con­di­tions from March to May, with above-av­er­age rain­fall to­tals most like­ly.

Warm Tem­per­a­tures Ex­pect­ed In 2021

The TTMS forecasts that temperatures are likely to peak near 34°C during April and May 2021. Image courtesy Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service (TTMS).

In the age of cli­mate change and glob­al warm­ing, our fore­cast tem­per­a­tures con­tin­ue to re­flect warmer than av­er­age day and night tem­per­a­tures, like­ly dur­ing the dry sea­son.  Ac­cord­ing to the TTMS, tem­per­a­tures are like­ly to peak near 34°C dur­ing April and May, with one or two short-du­ra­tion hot spells dur­ing those months. In their sea­son­al tem­per­a­ture out­look, the TTMS al­so is fore­cast­ing one or two very cold nights dur­ing Jan­u­ary and Feb­ru­ary, where min­i­mum tem­per­a­tures drop be­low 20°C.

What Can We Ex­pect?

While these above-av­er­age rain­fall to­tals will be wel­come for the farm­ing com­mu­ni­ty, it al­so can el­e­vate the risk of flood­ing for some flood-prone ar­eas, in­clud­ing farm­land.  Flood­ing and pond­ing of wa­ter may en­hance op­por­tu­ni­ties for mos­qui­to breed­ing and risk of dengue in­ci­dence.  Wet­ter than usu­al con­di­tions may sub­due—but not elim­i­nate—the risk of bush and for­est fires.

The TTMS is ad­vis­ing the pub­lic and the gov­ern­ment to con­tin­ue to keep wa­ter chan­nels clear.  Al­though these wet­ter than av­er­age con­di­tions are fore­cast, wa­ter is a pre­cious re­source, and wa­ter con­ser­va­tion prac­tices should be main­tained, with wa­ter be­ing stored and man­aged safe­ly.

While rain­fall may re­duce the risk of fires, the Met Ser­vice al­so urges that con­tin­gency plans to mit­i­gate bush, land­fill, and for­est fires should be es­ca­lat­ed.