Eliz­a­beth Gon­za­les

To­ba­go Cor­re­spon­dent

To­ba­go is in the spot­light for to­mor­row’s Gen­er­al Elec­tion, draw­ing sig­nif­i­cant na­tion­al at­ten­tion. While the is­land has just two seats–To­ba­go East and To­ba­go West–in the 41-mem­ber Par­lia­ment, there has been an in­crease in the num­ber of con­tenders vy­ing to rep­re­sent the is­land.

This elec­tion the com­pe­ti­tion is fiercer than ever, and every move on the is­land is be­ing watched with grow­ing cu­rios­i­ty.

Ac­cord­ing to Prof Hamid Ghany, Guardian Me­dia’s res­i­dent po­lit­i­cal sci­en­tist, in an April 6 re­port, with on­ly two con­stituen­cies, the Peo­ple’s Na­tion­al Move­ment (PNM) will be re­ly­ing on re­tain­ing To­ba­go East and To­ba­go West as part of its path to re­turn­ing to gov­ern­ment, as­sum­ing it main­tains its cur­rent seats in Trinidad.

What adds to To­ba­go’s in­trigue, he said, is the clear shift in po­lit­i­cal sup­port over re­cent years: from a PNM win in the Au­gust 2020 gen­er­al elec­tion to a 6-6 dead­lock in the Jan­u­ary 2021 To­ba­go House of As­sem­bly (THA) polls, and then a dra­mat­ic 14-1 de­feat in De­cem­ber 2021, af­ter the House of As­sem­bly grew from 12 to 15 seats.

So, how will To­ba­go vote? What has been the fall­out for the Pro­gres­sive De­mo­c­ra­t­ic Pa­tri­ots (PDP) with the emer­gence of the To­ba­go Peo­ple’s Par­ty (TPP)? And where does PNM sup­port now stand, giv­en the clear shift to­ward the PDP in the 2021 THA elec­tions and the PDP’s split in De­cem­ber 2022 that led to the for­ma­tion of the TPP in 2023?

With the race for To­ba­go’s two seats heat­ing up, each par­ty—ex­cept for the PNM, who is in de­fence mode—sees the seats as a bar­gain­ing tool.

Whether it’s to lead and form the new gov­ern­ment or to se­cure sig­nif­i­cant ben­e­fits for To­ba­go, these two seats have be­come a key fo­cus.

Chief Sec­re­tary and leader of the TPP Far­ley Au­gus­tine and PDP leader Wat­son Duke made it clear that To­ba­go’s two seats will be used strate­gi­cal­ly.

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In 2023, Au­gus­tine said, “These two To­ba­go seats will be­come our bar­gain­ing chip,” sig­nalling that who­ev­er wins To­ba­go could hold the pow­er to in­flu­ence the di­rec­tion of the new gov­ern­ment.

And it’s a pow­er many To­bag­o­ni­ans said they are pre­pared to use.

Dolton Joseph, who lives in Scar­bor­ough, be­lieves To­bag­o­ni­ans must now act wise­ly. “Peo­ple get the Gov­ern­ment they de­serve … we are the most im­por­tant part of the process,” he said. “This might be a re­peat of the past, but what’s at stake now is dif­fer­ent. If there is a dead­lock again, To­ba­go must choose who to align with care­ful­ly and make sure our needs are met.”

Joseph said To­ba­go’s rep­re­sen­ta­tives must al­ready know what the peo­ple have de­mand­ed for years. “Col­lab­o­ra­tion be­tween lo­cal and na­tion­al lev­els must im­prove. For­get par­ty pol­i­tics. Do what is best for all cit­i­zens.”

Jen­nifer Noel of East To­ba­go wants the is­land’s elect­ed MPs to re­main in­de­pen­dent in the event of an­oth­er split vote. “If To­ba­go be­comes king­mak­er, don’t join with any­one. Be your own voice,” she said. “Every time we be­come part of a coali­tion, it ends bad­ly. Stand your ground, use the pow­er for the greater good, and let God guide the process.”

The pos­si­bil­i­ty of To­ba­go play­ing king­mak­er isn’t new. In 1995, both the UNC and PNM won 17 seats each. The Na­tion­al Al­liance for Re­con­struc­tion (NAR), hold­ing To­ba­go’s two seats, sided with the UNC, help­ing Bas­deo Pan­day be­come Prime Min­is­ter. In 2001, an 18-18 tie be­tween the PNM and UNC led to a dead­lock. To­ba­go did not side with ei­ther par­ty, and it forced a new elec­tion the fol­low­ing year, with PNM win­ning the ma­jor­i­ty of seats.

Then in 2010, the To­ba­go Or­gan­i­sa­tion of the Peo­ple (TOP) joined the Peo­ple’s Part­ner­ship coali­tion. With To­ba­go’s sup­port, the coali­tion gained 29 seats and formed the Gov­ern­ment.

This year, the Elec­tions and Bound­aries Com­mis­sion (EBC) re­ports 161 can­di­dates across 41 con­stituen­cies, rep­re­sent­ing 17 po­lit­i­cal par­ties and three in­de­pen­dents. Bound­ary changes in 16 seats and the re­nam­ing of five add more un­cer­tain­ty to the out­come.

In To­ba­go, the po­lit­i­cal scene is more com­pet­i­tive than ever. The PNM, TPP, PDP, Pa­tri­ot­ic Front, the In­no­v­a­tive De­mo­c­ra­t­ic Al­liance (IDA), and two in­de­pen­dents are all fight­ing to hold or gain ground. The PNM, which once dom­i­nat­ed the is­land, is work­ing to re­gain rel­e­vance af­ter be­ing vot­ed out of the To­ba­go House of As­sem­bly in 2021.

Wat­son Duke, leader of the PDP, said the par­ty would ne­go­ti­ate for key Cab­i­net posts if it wins both To­ba­go seats. “We will not give away To­ba­go’s pow­er,” Duke said at a cam­paign event. The IDA, mean­while, said it wants “re­al so­lu­tions” for the is­land.

Crown Point res­i­dent God­win Bur­ris be­lieves this is To­ba­go’s mo­ment. “For years, atroc­i­ties have been com­mit­ted against the peo­ple of To­ba­go. If we get that king­mak­er pow­er, we should wel­come it with open arms,” he said. “It would give us room to re­al­ly de­mand what we de­serve. Our prob­lems—crime, lack of ser­vices—could fi­nal­ly be ad­dressed prop­er­ly and with ur­gency.”

Fi­del James of Scar­bor­ough said the pow­er must be used wise­ly. “To­ba­go must use this op­por­tu­ni­ty to place our­selves in strate­gic po­si­tions to have a re­al say in na­tion­al de­ci­sions,” he ex­plained. “But af­ter the elec­tion, we need re­al con­sul­ta­tion with the peo­ple of To­ba­go—busi­ness lead­ers, church­es, com­mu­ni­ties—be­fore de­cid­ing who to sup­port. Per­son­al­ly, I’m on the fence. I could go ei­ther way—Kam­la (Per­sad-Bisses­sar) or Stu­art Young—de­pend­ing on who shows they’ll work for To­ba­go.”

He added that us­ing the king­mak­er role to se­cure more ser­vices for To­ba­go should be the goal. “This on­ly comes once every five years. Use it to the max­i­mum.”

In Spey­side, Hol­lis Camp­bell wants to see con­ti­nu­ity. “Every­body wants to get in pow­er, but I be­lieve Far­ley must get a chance. Let him fin­ish what he start­ed,” he said. But Camp­bell is more con­cerned about To­ba­go’s long-stand­ing is­sues. “I send down my deed to Trinidad three years now to put it in my wife’s name. It still eh come back. We still have to go to Trinidad for every­thing. Since Robin­son days we try­ing to get some­thing here.”

He added, “We don’t want to sep­a­rate from Trinidad. We just want to get ser­vices here in To­ba­go, to stay here and do busi­ness here. That’s all we want.”

Oth­er To­bag­o­ni­ans Guardian Me­dia spoke with said they will be vot­ing based on which par­ty presents the strongest crime plans, the most re­al­is­tic di­ver­si­fi­ca­tion ideas, and so­lu­tions to job­less­ness. Many said they are tired of promis­es and now want de­liv­ery but don’t be­lieve that pow­er lies with To­ba­go as it did in 1995.

With so many To­bag­o­ni­ans de­mand­ing change and par­ties open­ly plan­ning to lever­age the To­ba­go seats, po­lit­i­cal an­a­lysts be­lieve the is­land may once again find it­self in the po­si­tion to shape the next gov­ern­ment. But as sev­er­al vot­ers said— this time, they want that pow­er used with pur­pose.