kristy.ramnarine@cnc3.co.tt
Brace yourselves. T&T’s hotter-than-normal temperatures are expected to continue until the end of October.
On August 27, Trinidad recorded a scorching 34.7°C at Piarco surpassing the 35.5°C recorded on October 18, 2020.
Last Wednesday, the European climate service, Copernicus, announced that the Earth had sweltered through its hottest June, July and August on record. In May, the World Meteorological Organisation said global temperatures were likely to surge to record levels over the next five years.
T&T Meteorological Service climatologist Kaidar Kissoon explained that a mixture of high sea temperatures and El Niño weather patterns were contributing to the intensified local heat.
“The sea surface temperatures in waters surrounding Trinidad and Tobago are above normal this year,” he said.
“The heat gets into the air which blows across the islands. This is known as trade winds. The warm air or heat index increases the temperature.
“El Niño conditions continue to develop during 2023. El Niño conditions generally have been associated with the reduction of local cloudiness and local rainfall, but not always.”
In its Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for August 2023 to January 2024, the T&T Met Service predicted above-normal day and night temperatures for most of the country with a high (70 per cent) probability of short-duration hot spells from August to October.
Mostly average rainfall totals are expected from August to October, with moderate chances for the usual number of wet days and a moderate chance for flooding to occur.
The T&T Met Service warned that an increase in surface water ponding in areas can promote mosquito breeding. This will increase the risk of higher incidences of vector-borne diseases.
“Frequent rainfall events, mixed with warm and humid conditions tend to promote rapid multiplication of some agricultural pests, diseases and fungal growth. A high probability exists for high fly and mosquito populations.”
Temperatures are expected to get cooler in November.
UN: Climate breakdown has started
The United Nations has issued a warning. It comes from Secretary-General António Guterres following the global record-breaking air and sea temperatures recorded for June, July and August.
“Our planet has just endured a season of simmering, the hottest summer on record. Climate breakdown has begun. Scientists have long warned what our fossil fuel addiction will unleash. Surging temperatures demand a surge in action. Leaders must turn up the heat now for climate solutions. We can still avoid the worst of climate chaos—and we don’t have a moment to lose,” he said.
World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas said the condition is happening before the full warming impact of the El Niño event, which typically plays out in the second year after it develops.
He added: “The northern hemisphere just had a summer of extremes—with repeated heatwaves fuelling devastating wildfires, harming health, disrupting daily lives and wreaking a lasting toll on the environment. In the southern hemisphere, Antarctic sea ice extent was literally off the charts, and the global sea surface temperature was once again at a new record.”
Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF Carlo Buontempo noted that eight months into 2023, the world is experiencing its second warmest year to date, only fractionally cooler than 2016.
“August was estimated to be around 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels. What we are observing, not only new extremes but the persistence of these record-breaking conditions, and the impacts these have on both people and planet, are a clear consequence of the warming of the climate system.”
Caribbean governments warned about El Niño
El Niño is the term used to refer to warmer than usual ocean surface temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño can affect weather significantly. It often results in changes in the patterns of precipitation and temperature across many parts of the globe, including the Caribbean.
The UWI Global Institute for Climate Smart and Resilient Development (The UWI GICSRD) and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) warned of the effects of El Niño earlier in the year.
“We urge Caribbean governments, residents and other interests to continue paying close attention to shifts in global climate including the likely emergence of El Niño this year,” those agencies advised in a statement.
For years The UWI and CIMH have independently and at times collaboratively researched how El Niño events affect the Caribbean. That research shows that during an El Niño, the Caribbean is prone to be dry, or very dry. The 2009 to 2010 and 2014 to 2016 droughts, considered to be two of the most severe to affect the Caribbean in recent memory, occurred during El Niño events.
El Niño is also associated with a reduced number of hurricanes due to less than conducive conditions for development caused by stronger upper atmospheric winds.
Temperatures break
global record
The 2023 June-July-August season was the warmest on record globally with an average temperature of 16.77°C. That is 0.66°C above average, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
C3S Deputy Director Samantha Burgess said it was the warmest boreal summer in data records going back to 1940.
She added: “2023 is currently ranked as the second warmest, at only 0.01°C behind 2016 with four months of the year remaining. Meanwhile, the global ocean saw in August both the warmest daily surface temperature on record, and it’s the warmest month on record.
“The scientific evidence is overwhelming—we will continue to see more climate records and more intense and frequent extreme weather events impacting society and ecosystems until we stop emitting greenhouse gases.”
There was also above-average precipitation over most of western Europe and Turkey, with local rainfall records broken leading to flooding in some cases, and in western and north-eastern North America, parts of Asia, Chile and Brazil, and north-western Australia.
In contrast, Iceland, the Alpine arc, northern Scandinavia, central Europe, large parts of Asia, Canada, southern North America and most of South America experienced drier-than-average conditions. In some regions, these dry conditions led to significant wildfires.
A report in May from the World Meteorological Office and the UK’s Met Office predicted a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record.
The report also said there is a 66 per cent chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one of those five years.
