Veteran pollster Dr Vishnu Bisram of North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA ) has urged the public to view political surveys like the recent Hamid Ghany poll as snapshots, not predictions.
“Several people asked me to comment on the Ghany poll,” he said, referencing the April 20 Guardian publication. “But it’s not fair or professional for one pollster to critique another’s work. Instead, I’ll speak to how polls are generally done.”
Dr Bisram, who has conducted hundreds of surveys in Trinidad, Tobago, and abroad, said criticism of the Ghany poll’s sample size and ethnic breakdown is largely unfounded. “He surveyed 1,650 people in Trinidad and 550 in Tobago—well above the standard threshold. And each of the 11 constituencies surveyed has different demographics. One size doesn’t fit all.”
According to Dr Bisram, surveys in Trinidad and Tobago usually rely on face-to-face or telephone interviews, with other methods like online or mail-in surveys being more common in developed countries. The Ghany poll used in-person interviews, with responses entered digitally and then analysed using cross-tabulations based on socio-economic data.
“In-person household surveys are the Caribbean standard,” he said. “Interviewers either intercept people at random or select homes randomly and speak to one member of the household.”
“There will always be detractors regardless of the pollster,” he said. “Parties and their supporters cheer or condemn polls depending on which side is ahead. Pollsters can never please everyone, and they’re often attacked by those whose party or candidate trails in the findings.”
Bisram stressed that a poll is only a guide to current public opinion. “It’s not ordained by God,” he said. “If actual results differ, that doesn’t mean the poll was wrong—unless it’s significantly off.”
“The Ghany poll’s 3–4% margin of error is correct. But remember, a week is a long time in politics. The data may already be outdated.”
His final assessment: “Personally, the election is close.”
