Meteorologist/Reporter
kalain.hosein@guardian.co.tt
Tropical Storm Beryl officially strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane yesterday afternoon, becoming the first of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The unusually early-season storm rapidly strengthened from a tropical depression to a hurricane in 24 hours, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said further rapid intensification is expected.
The region was left bracing for Hurricane Beryl, which is expected to bring “life-threatening winds and storm surge” to the Windward Islands, from Grenada to Martinique, and Barbados tonight through tomorrow.
Forecasters said that Beryl will be near the area as a major Category 3 hurricane, passing north of Tobago tonight.
According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records, only three storms have reached Category 3 status in the North Atlantic Ocean this early in the season: Alma in 1966, Audrey in 1957, and an unnamed storm in 1916.
As a result, yesterday evening, Barbados, Grenada, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and St Lucia were placed under a hurricane warning, while Tobago and Martinique were under a tropical storm warning. Dominica remained under a tropical storm watch.
• A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected in the specified area within 36 hours and that people should complete all storm preparations, including evacuations if directed by local officials.
• A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area within 36 hours.
• A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the specified area within 48 hours.
While the system had sustained winds of 130 km/h and higher gusts yesterday evening, the NHC said continued steady to rapid strengthening has been forecasted, and by tomorrow morning, Beryl will have maximum sustained winds of 180 km/h with higher gusts.
The NHC said, “Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas on Sunday night or Monday morning.
“Devastating wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands.”
Across the mountainous terrain of Grenada, St Vincent, and St Lucia, the NHC warned, “Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 per cent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.”
The centre of Beryl is forecast to remain north of T&T, with the country remaining on the “weaker” side of the system.
However, with a tropical storm warning in place for Tobago, this means tropical storm conditions, with sustained winds of 63 KM/H to 118 KM/H are expected within 36 hours.
For Trinidad, the Met Office said, “At this time, the system poses no direct threat to Trinidad, as the probability for tropical storm conditions is low.”
For islands that experience the storm’s full might, the NHC said, “A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as five to seven feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where Beryl makes landfall in the hurricane warning areas.”
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by “large and destructive waves.”
The TTMS is forecasting waves between 1.5 metres and 2.5 metres across the country’s open waters, but forecast models show that waves as high as 4.5 metres are possible north and northeast of Tobago.
As Beryl passes north of the country, outer bands, called feeder bands, are likely to affect Trinidad and, more so, Tobago. The NHC is forecasting rainfall totals between three to six inches (75 millimetres to 150 millimetres) of rainfall, which may cause flooding in low-lying areas.
Coastal communities, particularly north and east-facing coastlines, may also be affected by coastal flooding as swells from Beryl arrive across the area late today, causing dangerous rip currents.
The TTMS said, “The initial outlook for Trinidad and Tobago is for cloudy skies with showers and a medium to high chance of thunderstorm activity by Monday, July 1, 2024. Sea conditions are expected to become choppy and occasionally rough from early Monday morning, as Beryl moves across the Windward Islands.”